NKTR Update - Jefferies Healthcare Conferece

All,

I’m in Montana, and the sun is setting, albeit very slowly, over a particularly placid Flathead lake. I have a brew, and I am amazed that a post I made a few mornings ago had such an impact. Thank you all for the kind words, but that post was little payback for the troves of knowledge and ultimately market beating returns that I have been blessed with as a recent member of this board community. As such, I felt an obligation to listen to the Jefferies Healthcare conference webcast from this afternoon given by NKTR’s chief scientific officer.

Here is a link to the webcast. It is 25 minutes long and is excellent for anyone with an interest in what this company is doing and trying to do:

http://wsw.com/webcast/jeff113/nktr/

Short answer, its all good, and we have interpreted their data correctly.

Here are my notes from the webcast: the long answer.

Jonathan Zeleski, the chief scientific officer first summarized their pipeline:
Immuno-Oncology (NKTR-214, NKTR-262, NKTR-255), Immunology (NKTR-358), and Chronic Pain (NKTR -181)

He briefly summarized the development and current status of NKTR-181:
• 15 clinical trials over 2200 subjects including efficacy, safety, and abuse potential evaluation.
• Met with FDA twice pre-NDA to finalize NDA package.
• Actively evaluating potential licenses to commercial partners or other strategic structural alternatives.
I think this is a fait accompli for approval.

He then spent the majority of the time on NKTR-214. These are the main conclusions about the current state of NKTR-214:

• Pre-specified efficacy criteria were achieved in 1L melanoma, 1L renal cell carcinoma and 1L cisplatin-ineligible urothelial carcinoma which support the evaluation of NKTR-214 plus nivolumab in registrational trials.
• NKTR-214 in combination with nivolumab showed encouraging anti- tumor activity with notable ORR in PD-L1 negative patients (42% melanoma, 53% RCC, 60% urothelial).
• NKTR-214 in combination with nivolumab at the RP2D was well tolerated with a low rate of Gr3+ TRAEs including immune mediated AEs.
• Robust translational data confirm rationale for activation of the immune system in the tumor microenvironment with a conversion of PD-L1 negative tumors to PD-L1 positive on treatment.
• Ongoing enrollment in PIVOT-02 continuing for additional tumor types in I-O naïve and refractory settings.

The science behind NKTR-214:
• Biased signaling to CD122 receptors (IL-2Rbg).
• Activates CD8 T-cells and NK cells.
• Proleukin (native IL2) first drug approved for renal cell carcinoma treatment several decades ago, but very toxic.
• NKTR-214 is polymer conjugated (PEGylated) IL-2 in a way biased toward CD122 receptor.
• Its use results in a 30 fold elevation in CD8 T-cells and 26 fold increase in PD-1 expression on these CD-8 T-cells (blocking these PD-1 receptors is the target of Keytruda and Opdivo).

BMS NKTR Partnership:
In partnership with BMS, they are evaluating 9 different tumor types over 20 indications in over 15,000 patients. NKTR will bear anywhere from 22 to 32% of the cost of drug development, not to exceed 125M per year.

Review of PIVOT Phase I/II data:
• Seeing strong responses in PD-L1 negative patients in that the doublet of NKTR-214 and Opdivo converts tumor from PD-L1 negative to PD-L1 positive (this is the first time this has been scientifically demonstrated).
• This has occurred in over 50% of patients with PD-L1 negative tumors.
• These PD-L1 positive patients, either native, or converted, showed greatest clinical benefit.

This an important distinguishing feature of the therapy, that it can convert tumors to becoming responders.

They added a slide called a Swim lane plot that segregates patients by time on therapy. These are clarifying slides (in response to the 40% stock haircut) that allow the N1 patients to be seen as distinct from the N2 patients, and clearly demonstrate that the longer on therapy, the deeper the response rates. I hope this alleviates the analysts fears, but who knows.

In Renal cell and bladder CA, they have several PD-L1 negative patients responding, with some achieving complete responses. Across all tumor types, they have had only one relapse. They are also seeing very strong responses with NSCLC, albeit with an small phase I cohort.

NKTR safety profile is strong with patients now on continuous three week interval dosing for over a year.

Hope all this helps.

For full disclosure, I doubled my NKTR position at 54 and change. I do not know how the share price will respond, but I do think NKTR’s science is sound and its clinical data robust and meaningful to patients. I have heard much consternation about the success of Keytruda and how that must hurt NKTR’s prospects. I think the entire opposite because once Keytruda and NKTR-214 get together (PROPEL trial), I anticipate further synergistic clinical response. I think BMS was wise to corner NKTR-214, at least for a time, for certain high profile malignancies, and I think it was wise for NKTR to partner with BMS to get access to cash and BMS’s clinical trial expertise to get NKTR-214 to market. Once on market, it is my anticipation that NKTR-214 will play a role in nearly all Immuno-oncology oriented cancer therapies.

Jack

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Jack,

Thank you for continuing to
provide such wonderful insights on NKTR.

You stated the following, which seems an astounding statement to a layman like me:

"Once on market, it is my anticipation that NKTR-214 will play a role in nearly all Immuno-oncology oriented cancer therapies.

Jack"

As a fellow investor in this stock, how confident are you of this coming true and what portion of the TAM fir cancer frugs does this represent?

Thanks for any additional insights,

Wes

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<<<Review of PIVOT Phase I/II data:
• Seeing strong responses in PD-L1 negative patients in that the doublet of NKTR-214 and Opdivo converts tumor from PD-L1 negative to PD-L1 positive (this is the first time this has been scientifically demonstrated).
• This has occurred in over 50% of patients with PD-L1 negative tumors.
• These PD-L1 positive patients, either native, or converted, showed greatest clinical benefit.

This an important distinguishing feature of the therapy, that it can convert tumors to becoming responders.>>>

Sometimes things that seem obvious to me, seem to be completely overlooked and undiscussed by anyone.

I wrote about this regarding earlier results, when there was criticism that overall results were not superior to what was in regards to responders to the treatment.

But what was clear in the data, is the exact reason why this partnership began to begin with, so that BMY’s drug could treat a larger group of patients that without 214 Opdivo simply was not effective to treat.

And here we are again, seeing the same thing. The cohort of patients that Opdivo can treat appears to be materially greater when in combination with 214.

Perhaps that is not what the trial was set up to measure, but the to me appears to be exactly what all this combination is about with Opdivo.

Am I wrong this? Are the analysts wrong on this, not to talk about this topic? Good to know if I am wrong, they are wrong, or we both are wrong, as I approach biotech investing (I am not invested in NKTR at present as many know) understanding that I do not know the nitty gritty details, but that I am pretty good at picking up the material gist of things.

This seems like the material gist, no?

Thanks Jack.

Tinker

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“But what was clear in the data, is the exact reason why this partnership began to begin with, so that BMY’s drug could treat a larger group of patients that without 214 Opdivo simply was not effective to treat.”

Lets review checkmate 214 (not to be confused with NKTR 214) data in pdl1 negative patients and compare to NKTR 214 drug data

reference for checkmate 214 https://academic.oup.com/annonc/article/28/suppl_5/mdx440.02…

Nivo/ipi had a response rate of 37% (106/284)in pdl1 negative 1st line rcc population and
Sutent had response rate of 28% (79/278) in pdl1 negative 1st line rcc population

reference for Nivo/NKTR 214 data http://www.nektar.com/application/files/1215/2798/5479/NKTR_…

compared to Nivo/NKTR 214 which has a response rate of 53% (9/17) in pdl1 negative 1st line rcc population

Meh, I chalk it up to small n. BMY is desperate to hang on to a once huge lead in I/O and will throw anything against the wall to see what sticks.

Again, where is the updated data from 1 out of 7 response rate in 2nd line rcc from SITC?

Nivo alone in 2nd line rcc has a response rate of greater than 20%. Something really smells funny here.

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Here is what the ASCO 2018 slide states about 2/3rd line rcc

RCC 2/3L I-O R/R N=15

Cohort Enrolled: 53% of patients still on treatment, 53% of patients had only scan or less (Neither futility nor efficacy criteria have been met yet; as data mature we will evaluate potential paths forward in 2L or 3

We already know 7 were evaluable for efficacy at SITC.

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clearly demonstrate that the longer on therapy, the deeper the response rates

I have no understanding of science, disease and other solutions available for cancer treatment.

How early cancer is diagnosed or identified? or rather of the current cancer population what % of patients can benefit from a prolonged therapy versus patients require therapies that deliver results immediately?

Seeing strong responses in PD-L1 negative patients in that the doublet of NKTR-214 and Opdivo converts tumor from PD-L1 negative to PD-L1 positive (this is the first time this has been scientifically demonstrated).

This an important distinguishing feature of the therapy, that it can convert tumors to becoming responders

Yes, it would be very important if it could be proven.

If I were a NKTR shareholder or prospective buyer, I would try to answer a few questions about this bold statement during the Jefferies conference. Firstly, did the presenter at ASCO or the ASCO slide deck also make the claim that this was the first time this had been scientifically demonstrated? This might appear to be trivial, but he is making the claim as if it were an endpoint in the study.

Secondly, is it the first time this has been demonstrated while other attempts have failed? Obviously, it wouldn’t have been observed if you were not looking.

Finally, have other checkpoint studies without 214 required second or third looks with biopsies to look at conversion of PDL-1 expression that could be due to checkpoint alone?

What I do know about PDL-1 expression is that protocols have differing thresholds for calling a tumor positive vs. negative. Some as low as 5% of the cells. PDL-1 expression is also unstable; it can disappear and reappear, and some sites can be pos or neg in the same subject. (Some would argue that the stains are unreliable so that many are false negatives in the first place.) But more than that, inflammatory cells can also express PDL-1, so in order to prove that tumors convert, they would need to be able to distinguish an inflammatory cell from a tumor cell in a biopsy.

Cosmid (no position)

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https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_…

Thoughts from individual on ihub

NKTR now put the data out, people are able to separate dose escalation and expansion cohorts easily and see time to response instead of making assumptions. The problem is it just confirms data are NOT impressive at all as the valuation suggests.

1L melanoma:

Dose escalation ORR=6/7 (1 SD)
Dose expansion ORR=8/21 (5 SD, 8 PD)

As I suggested here based on SITC2017 presentation, most responses occurred at 1st scan around 7/8 weeks.

https://twitter.com/jq1234t/status/1003334578235420672?s=21&…

1L RCC:

Dose escalation ORR=7/11 (1 SD, 3PD)
Dose expansion ORR=5/15 (7 SD, 3PD)

Responses here do occur after 1st scan at similar rate as 1st scan, but follow-up has been long enough where most responses had occurred based on dose escalation result. Again it suggests dose expansion cohorts will have very tough time to replicate dose escalation result.

I know many pointed out responses from PD-L1 negatives. This just isn’t good indication to really test this. Nivolumab 2nd line RCC trial vs everolimus showed little difference in PD-L1+ and - for overall survival. Just released Keytruda monotherapy in 1L RCC, ORR=38% in overall population but only 50% in PD-L1+, not the big differences seen in other indications.

I am not willing to say NKTR-214 is a placebo like IDO right now - I didn’t think IDO was placebo before ECHO-301 failure (keep in mind even my bearish stand on IDO wasn’t bearish enough) - but I don’t think these results are any better than IDO early stage results, certainly not as impressive as nivolumab + ipilimumab early stage data in melanoma. I haven’t looked at nivolumab + ipilimumab early stage data in RCC yet.

Since IL-2 is sort of validated target, which is an advantage over IDO, but NKTR-214 by itself didn’t produce much ORR in melanoma and RCC, wonder if dose used high enough to generate adequate efficacy as IL-2 required as monotherapy.

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My apology if this has already been posted:

“Mizuho analyst Difei Yang makes a bullish defense for the drug maker, and as far as she is concerned, “NKTR-214 continues to impress.” After all, Netkar not only will step forward 1L melanoma into a pivotal study in the third quarter of this year with progression-free survival data ready by the second quarter of 2020, but additionally, two further pivotal trials are primed to start as soon as the trial design is finalized. The trials will be designed for bladder cancer and renal cell carcinoma. Regarding the NSCLC indication, the company indicated plans to seek out second line and third line indication.

Believing the company’s asset continues to be “best-in-class” with more upside “possible,” the analyst reiterates a Buy rating on NKTR stock with a $103 price target. This notably implies a close to 68% upside from current levels. (To watch Yang’s track record, click here)

“We continue to see NKTR-214 as the best combo agent in I-O at this time. With response rates deepening over time and consistent across various indications, we believe the proposed MoA is working and additional upside remains for Nektar,” asserts Yang.

The analyst continues, “Updated data presented by Nektar shows a deepening of responses over time in melanoma, RCC, UC and NSCLC. Response rates appear fairly consistent across tumor indications and we believe the data could continue to improve. Safety front: 14.1% of patients experienced grade 3 or higher AEs, comparable to Opdivo and Keytruda monotherapy, i.e., there appears to be minimal added SAEs due to NKTR-214.”

https://www.smarteranalyst.com/analyst-insights/biotech-stoc…

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Believing the company’s asset continues to be “best-in-class” with more upside “possible,” the analyst reiterates a Buy rating on NKTR stock with a $103 price target. This notably implies a close to 68% upside from current levels. (To see Yang’s track record, click here)

“We continue to see NKTR-214 as the best combo agent in I-O at this time. With response rates deepening over time and consistent across various indications, we believe the proposed MoA is working and additional upside remains for Nektar,” asserts Yang.

For what it’s worth, here’s Yang’s rating on TipRanks:

Ranked 132 out of 4,826 analysts on TipRanks (159 out of 11,356 overall experts). It puts him in roughly the top 2.7% of analysts. That doesn’t mean that he’s guaranteed to be right, but it helps.

Saul

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As a father of two daughters, I feel the need to make one very small correction. Difei Yang, Also known as Elaine Yang, is female! She is in the top 2.7% of analysts…

David

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