Jumping back 20 posts or so, back when the post title related to the thread content, the Journal today has a piece on dysprosium, a rare earth metal that’s used in magnets in everything from seat belts to EV motors to, well almost anything. And here’s the problem, in graphic form:
And for those interested in the article: (subscription)
In its retaliation against U.S. tariffs, China slowed exports of several [rare-earth minerals and magnets] this month, setting off a panic among U.S. automakers.“You cannot build the motor without the magnet,” said a senior automotive executive. “If we want electric-vehicle production to continue to happen in the United States, this has to be solved.”
Under the new Chinese rules, U.S. companies have to apply for a license to export the minerals from the Asian country, a monthslong process that leaves carmakers uncertain if they will be able to replenish their supplies of this precious material.
While President Trump has said that his administration is actively [talking with Beijing on trade], it couldn’t be determined whether such discussions would lead China to soften its stance on these particular exports.
[Tesla] Chief Executive [Elon Musk]recently said a lack of the magnets could derail plans to build the [Optimus humanoid robot] at the company’s factory outside Austin, Texas.
Derail? How about stomp into oblivion? The article mentions that while there are ores of dysprosium in the US, it takes an average of 29 years to get a mine up and running. Another small issue? The US doesn’t have the technology to separate dysprosium from the ore, something the Chinese have mastered with their decades of experience. (There is one mine in the US, too small for our needs, and the refining operation is just coming on line.)
Now that doesn’t mean we couldn’t eventually figure it out. Or even that there aren’t alternatives; early EV motors were made without it - they were just far less efficient, making the range and power less attractive. And manufacturers are already searching around for, say seat belts that don’t use them which do exist, it just requires more/different sensors to confirm that the belt it buckled before the car takes off. That’s all re-engineering, which takes time.
And of course, the crucial nexus:
China’s head start on mining and extracting the precious elements makes it difficult to build alternative sources. “A mine in China, to produce from an ore to oxide, costs around $11 to $15 a kilogram,” said Mukherjee, of Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. “For a mine in Brazil, it’s approximately $35 to $40 a kilogram. It would be even higher in the U.S. or Australia.”