Not a bottom, but...

Dates with 4 or less stocks with higher closing prices from previous trading session since 1957. (Note, I think there is a one day lag in the dates, I have adjusted 20220613).

One
19871027…

Ahh, a fine vintage.
It was after I started watching markets but before I had meaningful money in them.

But I have to wonder—was that one stock “up” actually a data error?
Any idea what it was?
Probably not an error in the database. If it wasn’t real, it’s more likely to have been an error in the record keeping from that day.
A lot of people at the NYSE simply threw up their hands and went home.

Jim

I know Robbie uses more than one source to assure accuracy of GTR1 but Yahoo has all 4 stocks
Closing lower on the 13th than the 10th.

MCD
High Low Open Close Volume Adj Close
Date
2022-06-10 49.150002 47.369999 48.720001 47.709999 28910800 47.709999
2022-06-13 47.009998 45.400002 46.660000 45.689999 30308400 45.689999
MCD PreviousClose 47.709999084472656 Close 45.689998626708984 Increase -2.020000457763672

DRE
High Low Open Close Volume Adj Close
Date
2022-06-10 78.930000 77.309998 77.989998 77.43 470400 77.43
2022-06-13 76.400002 74.529999 75.239998 74.82 648400 74.82
DRE PreviousClose 77.43000030517578 Close 74.81999969482422 Increase -2.6100006103515625

TFC
High Low Open Close Volume Adj Close
Date
2022-06-10 13.21 12.63 13.0 12.75 55644400 12.75
2022-06-13 12.38 11.74 12.3 11.81 80676300 11.81
TFC PreviousClose 12.75 Close 11.8100004196167 Increase -0.9399995803833008

CME
High Low Open Close Volume Adj Close
Date
2022-06-10 23.85 22.99 23.43 23.040001 10105700.0 22.868450
2022-06-13 22.49 20.67 22.15 21.219999 14068100.0 21.061998
CME PreviousClose 23.040000915527344 Close 21.219999313354492 Increase -1.8200016021728516

RAMc

1 Like

I think this discussion is lost in the weeds. None of it can be truly repeatable or predictive.

Elan

5 Likes

I know Robbie uses more than one source to assure accuracy of GTR1 but Yahoo has all 4 stocks
Closing lower on the 13th than the 10th.

Using Yahoo I get different results than you.

Stock 6/13 6/10 Using Adjusted closes)

MCD 238.47 237.38 https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MCD/history?p=MCD
DRE 50.27 49.78
TFC 46.64 45.95
CME 202.99 199.9

The numbers are really different than yours, not sure why.

Craig

1 Like

Ahh, a fine vintage.
It was after I started watching markets but before I had meaningful money in them.

But I have to wonder—was that one stock “up” actually a data error?
Any idea what it was?

I don’t know the name of the stock as I don’t know any tricks to go back that far in GTR1 and unmask the stock. The stocks from the 13th I was able to get from the GTR1 screener.

Craig

1 Like

Aussi craig:
The numbers are really different than yours, not sure why.

Ouch! My numbers posted above are absolutely wrong. I apologies, I depended on a pandas datareader
program. It had been working and used for many thousands of comparisons in the past to compare SIP
data to YH data but I should have checked before posting.

RAM

1 Like

Come on, Craig … Forward returns! Don’t leave us hanging :slight_smile:

I looked at all the times when there were 10 or less stocks increasing from the previous day.

There have been 55 occasions, two recently so I looked at 53 instances out of a total of 16,436 days.

Days forward vs returns.

Days Ave Low High

21 1.01 0.74 1.17
42 1.05 0.74 1.39
63 1.07 0.73 1.54
126 1.15 0.71 1.71
253 1.28 0.86 1.96

Craig

10 Likes

Days Ave Low High
21 1.01 0.74 1.17
42 1.05 0.74 1.39
63 1.07 0.73 1.54
126 1.15 0.71 1.71
253 1.28 0.86 1.96

Huh, that’s a pretty good buy signal, if those past results are vaguely consistent with the future distribution.

Take the one year result: somebody offers you a wager.
You bet $1, and get back on average $1.28 every time you bet.
Worst case outcome you lose 14 cents, best case outcome you win 96 cents.
I’d take that wager all day long.

Jim

11 Likes

Worst case outcome you lose 14 cents, best case outcome you win 96 cents.
I’d take that wager all day long.

This does look compelling based upon the backtest data.

But I wonder how much this signal has been skewed by the advent and large share of total market funds invested in ETFs in recent years.

I would think this concentration would result in a lot more stocks moving in tandem than there used to be (at least in a short time period like 1 day) due to the buying/selling of ETF shares.

If that’s true, I wonder if comparing a signal today vs. a signal in years prior to ETF proliferation is comparing apples to oranges.

2 Likes

Come on, Craig … Forward returns! Don’t leave us hanging :slight_smile:

I looked at all the times when there were 10 or less stocks increasing from the previous day.

There have been 55 occasions, two recently so I looked at 53 instances out of a total of 16,436 days.

Days forward vs returns.

Days Ave Low High

21 1.01 0.74 1.17
42 1.05 0.74 1.39
63 1.07 0.73 1.54
126 1.15 0.71 1.71
253 1.28 0.86 1.96

The returns are based on ^S5TE which is GTR1 S&P500 equal weight.

Craig

2 Likes

Only about 13 S&P 500 stocks with price increases today so far.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/indices/sp/sp500?viewName=ma…

Only about 13 S&P 500 stocks with price increases today so far…

The stats are quite fun to watch.
According to the WSJ site, precisely one NYSE stock is up. (Fortress Capital Acquisition Corp. Cl A)

Plenty of new 52 week lows.
But according to another site, a pretty impressive 358 stocks are hitting 20 year lows.
I speculate without evidence that there is a bug, and that they’re including stocks hitting all time lows that haven’t actually traded for 20 years.

Jim

7 Likes

According to the WSJ site, precisely one NYSE stock is up. (Fortress Capital Acquisition Corp. Cl A)

ABBV was up today.

Elan

2 Likes

I think Jim means that only 1 stock in the NYSE touched its 52 week high today (not just up).

1 Like

I think Jim means that only 1 stock in the NYSE touched its 52 week high today (not just up).

Sorry, I “mistyped”. As you note, that was the lone reported NYSE new 52 week high.
And it’s a SPAK: kind of ironic.

Jim

1 Like