Looks like intraday so far, the NYSE is showing 686 new 52-week lows. A pretty high number, though not record breaking.
What’s interesting is that there are precisely zero new highs indicated.
Quite something, when you remember that the NYSE carries all kinds of things like bond funds, individual bonds, and maybe even listed inverse funds.
Not sure about the latter.
According to my magic 8 ball this isn’t enough to mark a market bottom, neither short term nor long term.
But it is a single day of remarkable consensus.
I’ve never predicted anything before. I just assume everybody else knows more than I do.
But I’ve been unavoidable looking at charts lately (they’re everywhere, I can’t avoid seeing them.) Looks to me that a major, long term bottom (I care not for shorties, bounces, or some specific “opportunity” along the way.) on the S&P 500 will be around 2800-ish. Could overshoot & go a bit lower because these things are never surgically precise.
Always a possibility of much lower due to exogenous events and some deus ex machina could provide a higher bottom. All unforseeable. Barring those, 2800 on the S&P is the place.
If it’s the same as 2000 and 2008 then 3100 will be the place (calculation by thumb, not done surgically precise
Ok, this is the kind of feedback I like! I will ask you: What is your basis for 3100? and how are 2000 & 2008 involved? BTW, I would consider 3100 a close enough, in the neighborhood of 2800 bottom of 2800. So, we are still in general agreement.
But, I will tell you why I picked 2800. It’s the only slightly subjectively drawn long-term trend line from the last major, generational low point in 2008. That’s it. I figured a little wag due to it’s not being a precisely measurable thing should be expected.
Another thing I read over the weekend that sounded interesting but the source is… meh.
Jim Rogers quote: Bottoms aren’t reached with 4 or 5 year lows. They come with 10-15 year lows. I didn’t look back in time to see how accurate that was. I do know that Rogers is a billionaire via commodities mostly and he spent the 1990’s gloom & dooming on stocks and wringing his hands about inflation being just “around the cawnah”. I just can’t see a drop back to the 600-700 range.
Ok, this is the kind of feedback I like! I will ask you: What is your basis for 3100? and how are 2000 & 2008 involved?
As you mentioned charts I simply looked at a “Max” S&P chart (starting 1948 or so), found the 2 big drawdowns after the .COM bubble and the GFC to be both around -35%, and applied that to the ATH of 4818 last Dez, resulting in around 3100 (or rather 3150).
Too simple for this sophisticated board? Probably.
Ok, this is the kind of feedback I like! I will ask you: What is your basis for 3100? and how are 2000 & 2008 involved? ---------------------------------- As you mentioned charts I simply looked at a “Max” S&P chart (starting 1948 or so), found the 2 big drawdowns after the .COM bubble and the GFC to be both around -35%, and applied that to the ATH of 4818 last Dez, resulting in around 3100 (or rather 3150).
Too simple for this sophisticated board? Probably.
Well I don’t know if the process or the math are too sophisticated but the initials are for me. What is: GFC, ATH, and Dez?
As you mentioned charts I simply looked at a “Max” S&P chart (starting 1948 or so), found the 2 big drawdowns after the .COM bubble and the GFC to be both around -35%, and applied that to the ATH of 4818 last Dez, resulting in around 3100 (or rather 3150).
Too simple for this sophisticated board? Probably.
Always interested in why people think what they think. Why do you think the next low will be the same as those other lows? How did that get to be your standard?
Looking back to the Jim Rodgers quote the 2003 low was almost a 10 yr low. (7 yrs I think. And 2008 was 12 or 13 years. So, things that make you go “Hmmmm…?” I didn’t look back any further. How many years of gains did 1973/74 wipe out? Or 1982? That probably took out most of the 60’s and all of the 70’s.
I still cannot see a 700 low tho. Something vacillating around that 2800 seems more likely
Why do you think the next low will be the same as those other lows?
I don’t. I wouldn’t be surprised if it gets lower than those two — but would be surprised if it doesn’t get at least that low.
Reason: I think Jeremy Grantham is correct with his “multiple bubbles at the same time”. I see the Buffett indicator (Ratio of total US stock market valuation to GDP) beeing more extreme than during the .com bubble.
Being a skeptic by nature those and other “signs on the wall” confirm my thinking of “What goes (too much) up must come down” and as it did go up FAR too much valuation wise it must go accordingly for a long time to come sideways for valuations to return to the mean or FAR down, with the latter finally happening it seems. And if that’s really the case it’s not done with -20%.
And I don’t think fundamentally this is due to Ukraine etc. as I read everywhere (“DOW down because of… War/China/Inflation”), that those are just the triggers for what at some point unavoidably had to happen.
Disclaimer: I am a total investing and economics amateur.
Every stock in the SP 500 closed lower today. First time since 1990.
Not that I disbelieve you at all, but that’s quite something. Do you have a source? GTR1 isn’t updated yet.
According to GTR1 (assuming I did it correctly) there were 4 stocks that closed June 13 higher than June 10.
MCD
DRE
TFC
CME
The 1990 date didn’t show up.
Dates with 4 or less stocks with higher closing prices from previous trading session since 1957. (Note, I think there is a one day lag in the dates, I have adjusted 20220613).
