You could argue that but I think it would be based on a lot of false premises. It’s too early to assess the Semi but initial trials with Pepsi appear to be successful. The Cybertruck reached production of 1000/week in April and is projected to reach 2000/week by the end of this quarter. Tesla gives update on Cybertruck, 1,000 in a week | Electrek
I also think FSD is going to be a big deal sooner than you think. But to be honest, all of this is kind of besides the point.
If one believes that Tesla is only or even primarily an auto company then one should not be invested in Tesla. Even Musk has implied that Tesla is probably already over-valued based solely on its auto business. To be invested in Tesla today only makes sense if one believes in the potential of TaaS/robotaxis, energy storage, humanoid robots, virtual power plants, software-defined vehicles, AI computing services, etc.
If one does believe that these are revolutions about to happen, then the value of Musk as CEO is immense because he seems to be one of the very few with a vision of how to lead the revolutions while making a ton of money for his backers. He is a visionary who can also build factories. He is like the millions of Star Trek fans who dream about space travel, but he can also build reusable rockets that actually work. He is like the many Greens who recognize the need to eliminate gas cars, but he is one of the very few who can profitably build electric cars that are better than gas cars. His is a rare combination of traits.
That is not true. You can kick a lot of the cogs out of Tesla’s organization but not Musk.
“Professionals” would kill Tesla like ejits.
To others, Musk is not a “traditional CEO”. Tesla would not have made it if he were.
Being a ditz with something up your rear makes one a traditional CEO. The Harvard MBA masks things. These people are very talented. Talented at making themselves money. Not talented at building businesses.
On the admittedly somewhat paranoid assumption that few official things happen in China that isn’t high orchestrated, I note the following.
The unexpected move by the Chinese government to allow Tesla FSD was immediately followed by the announced partnership between Baidu and Tesla. A few days later we have the CEO of Xiaomi praising FSD. The CEO of Xpeng adds “…Tesla’s FSD could help usher in the era of smart cars”. Tesla FSD makes a believer of Xiaomi co-founder after test ride.
Fearless prediction: In the next year, Tesla will license FSD to Chinese automakers as part of joint robotaxi ventures. Perhaps this could even be Tesla’s 8/8 announcement. China wants to be the world leader in software-defined TaaS (along with every other industry) and sees cooperation with Tesla as the vehicle to accomplish this while the West is preoccupied with propping up their increasingly obsolete car OEMs.
According to this guy, the FSD that China has approved is no more than the FSD that already exists in the US. In other words, hype to goose the stock. Disappointing if true, certainly, because I’ve read myriad articles proclaiming it a new day, and enough drool in this thread to choke my iPad. But read for yourself:
Mark Hawtin, GAM's investment director focused on technology, told CNBC expectations surrounding the capabilities of Tesla's Full Self Driving product in China are misleading.
Hawtin said Full Self Driving, or FSD, lacks the qualities that would make it an example of truly “self-driving” technology.
“It’s by no means autonomous driving yet,” he told CNBC, adding that FSD is currently already available in the U.S. and U.K.
The internet is full of any kind of quotes from all sorts of “this guys”.
What I find more compelling are positive quotes for FSD from CEOs of competing companies in a country where EV competition is extremely fierce. This doesn’t happen very often.
It seems to be ‘rumors’ but, echoes my thoughts when I heard Elon was visiting China after having canceled the India visit.
FWIW, I think India is being ‘difficult’ about a GigaFactory or other Elon related business. And, perhaps other Western companies as well.
IMO, India is charting its own course, and NOT following the Chinese model of sticky-strings-attachments-Most-Favored-Nation-favoritism-etc.
Yes, I personally would like to see GigaIndia.
At any rate, Musk doing a Beijing turn-around after ‘last minute’ canceling with the Indian folks… looks a bit ‘bad’?
