BRK vs S&P Jan 2024

1 Like

Good morning , if Buffett didn’t split the stock and authorize a buyback we would be lagging spy dramatically the past 15 years. He should have authorized the buyback in 2007 after his donation letter. Also, after the bni deal we should have at least bought back the shares issued in that agreement. Very frustrating unforced errors. Take care bud.

1 Like

Meta Stock: Why The Dividend Initiation Was A Real Game Changer (NASDAQ:META) | Seeking Alpha

1 Like

Musk has serious tennis, balls, but I doubt this is good for Tesla shareholders bud. Good luck, Always The Plan: Musk Reveals Bidens Intentional Border Invasion To Create One-Party State


Always The Plan: Musk Reveals Bidens Intentional Border Invasion To Create One-Party State

This explains why there are so few deportations, as every deportation is a lost vote.

]("Always The Plan": Musk Reveals Biden's Intentional Border Invasion To Create "One-Party State" | ZeroHedge)

Left and Right are both confused about Elon.

Business execution is the only thing that matters.

Remember when Facebook was this hated company few years ago ?


So you are saying like FB TSLA is going to go even further down?

That was not my point but yes TSLA will go lower.

I am accumulating < $180. Increasing buying < $150. Backup the truck < $140.

By 2030 everyone will forget about the price today.

No one remembers today that TSLA went through “production hell” and was a $40B market cap in 2019. I was buying hand over fist throughout that period.


Tesla business and stock price is diverging.
Come to papa → $140 price


Tesla revenue is flat for the last 5 quarters, there are analysts now talking about negative growth. The stock price is reacting to that. Why are you saying business and stock price is diverging?


OK what is the catalyst now? Separately, I hope you took some profit along the way.

1 Like

I don’t invest in Q over Q or look for catalysts. I am looking at 2030+. I understand that 2024 will be painful year.

The business is progressing on many simultaneous fronts: FSD, Energy, Dojo, Inference chips, Next Gen model, Global expansion, Optimus, Manufacturing, Charging Network, Cybertruck, Robotaxi, Batteries, Lithium plant.

Each one is a terrific opportunity with plenty of execution risks + trust that Elon will deliver.

I am slowly selling my BRK and am poised to swing big on TSLA leaps. Stock is sideways for 3 years now.


Let us say, suddenly Musk is no longer involved with Tesla, how much TSLA can deliver on any of this? I guess they can still deliver on the cars, but what about other opportunities?

How big is your swing? Meaning is it like 1% of your portfolio vs 10%?

1 Like
  1. Without Musk, I will exit Tesla 100%.
  2. As I dollar cost average, Tesla will become 15%+ of my portfolio by EOY if Tesla goes below $140.
  3. Here is my very simple valuation by 2030
    10m cars * $10k fsd * 40 PE = $4T market cap

Are you assuming 10m sold each year with each one subscribing to FSD? Maybe only half will subscribe? Also a 40 P/E is usually reserved for companies showing substantial growth, so it would 10m in 2030, but would have to be 12+m in 2031, and 15+m in 2032, etc…

Number of cars on the road world wide are ~1.5 Billion. Tesla will license FSD.

Interesting stat: iPhone sales 2015: 231m. 2023: 231m

Have you watched Jensen Keynote? I assume the market will be big enough to have multiple players but clearly NVDA is going to power many players. Blink you miss.

My bigger concern with TSLA is, Musk for all his brilliance comes with the baggage of brilliant people, and TSLA seems to have no bench. If you are going to bet on TSLA based on Musk, you should have gotten in at the basement price. Current valuation has lot already baked in.

Any thoughts?

1 Like

Musk / Tesla risk is similar to Gates / Microsoft, Jobs / Apple, Buffett / Berkshire, Zuck / Meta, Bezos / Amazon.

Disagree. All other companies had someone who can step in. Is there a Tim Cook somewhere at TSLA?

1 Like

Clearly Tesla’s trajectory without Musk is unknown and I will exit. Drew Bagliano could be a successor.

Who knew about Cook before Jobs, Balmer/Satya before Gates , Jassy before Bezos ? Starbucks, Walmart, Ford, HP - companies do survive after their founders.

1 Like