Monkey done seen him the Jungle Book, and that Baloo bear was not bad. Slight honey problem, but otherwise a decent fellow.
Otherwise, Monkey doesn’t like bears on general principle. But from the looks of it, he’s living with one now.
• When earnings are good, the stock price is falling because they won’t be good enough later
• When earnings are bad, the stock price is falling because they’re bad, and later doesn’t matter
• Skyworks now has a 10.8 p/e and is growing revenue and expanding margins!
• LGIHomes now has a 9.8 p/e and is growing revenue and profit!
• Apple is now around 10 p/e and has more cash than entire countries!
When p/e continues to contract even as performance gets better, that’s when you know you’re living with a bear, no?
So unless this is a blip of irrationality, we might as well stop crying over rotten bananas and accept that the premiums of yesterday’s bull market are gone and settle into getting comfy with some nice low-paying dividends so at least we’ll be able to eat.
Is Monkey wrong in being bear sensitive? Maybe just don’t want to have the same thing happen as what happened to that bear naturalist in Werner Herzog’s Grizzly Man…
long SWKS, LGIH and glad that rationality is not a Monkey’s specialty and that your human big brains understand this stuff way better than me.
Otherwise, Monkey doesn’t like bears on general principle.
It certainly seems quite bearish.
Jeff Fischer had an interesting take that I think many of us have been feeling lately. He thinks the market just isn’t rewarding value stocks such as AAPL, AAL & GILD which are trading at absurdly low multiples.
He believes the market is only rewarding growth and cites AMZN as one example. But, we own a lot of “growth” stocks that aren’t being rewarded generously even for good to excellent performances. Some are being punished for good results.
Seems like a very tough environment right now. I just have to ride it out. I have faith in the companies that I own. SWKS is getting hammered along with APPL. Both are good size holdings for me. I don’t believe now is a good time to sell them.
Whether valid or not, there are reasons many of our stocks are sporting low PEs. SWKS is tied to the fate of APPL in the short term along with constant fears of somebody else taking their place. Interest rate increases and the oil market tanking keep LGIH in check. I can’t quite figure out what the heck is keeping SKX in check which is why I’ve invested more there. I could go on.
Alas, I guess only time will tell. This is what makes markets. I keep reviewing the information presented and weighing my options. It hasn’t been nearly as fun lately. It is a good thing I enjoy the actual evaluation process to some extent.
Just thought I’d ramble a bit…
If this is a bear market, it is a bit of a sideways bear market. Put selling makes money when stocks go nowhere.
I have been selling puts on SWKS, SKX, and now AAPL. I may nibble on an LGIH put, though that business is more risky than the first 3 in my opinion.
Reminds me a lot of August of last year, and Jan/Feb of this year. Good news not good enough, guidance not enough, or good guidance not enough to make up for “just meeting” expectations. Not saying correction is imminent, but I will be adding cautiously on relatively small dips while adding a little more cash just in case we do see a bigger overall correction.
Just my thoughts and “gut” feeling.