The HCI market is growing at a hyper growth pace and Nutanix is in a “rough patch”?
In hyper growth markets even incompetents can usually prosper much less the leading vendor.
On NPI we discussed the disconnect we ignored because Nutanix was “cheap” and the market simply misunderstood the business transition.
I know I stretched my rules in multiple categories as I looked back at my notes. I was really upset w myself (albeit I did have a 50% profit prior to the crash…ended up losing all the paper profits and took small capital loss).
But beyond that there was a clear disconnect and that was no matter how you calculated it Nutanix was growing slower than the market itself. This got covered up by Nutanix for a quarter finally becoming the market leader, but nevertheless it was so.
More so the issue w Dell came back to hurt them. Dell began aggressively pushing VMware and no longer pushing Nutanix. Long considered a risk, but most figured over blown. Well, like w Nvidia crypto currency, it was not overblown. Nutanix’s issues began as Dell became aggressive for VMware.
Lesson, don’t stretch your rules to make something fit that does not, be cautious of over reliance on factors outside the control and interests of the company, and don’t ignore disconnects between rhetoric and actual data (growing slower than the market).
Of further lesson is when a company refuses to disclose actual sales of material products. Here the Xi and other collateral products like Files. This has become a real yellow flag. Not dispositive but a flag nonetheless. I don’t ignore my mistakes. That is the only benefit of mistakes is to learn not to make them again.
Tinker