NVDA: math on disrupting NVDA

For something new or different to break in it has to have something really special, disruption. – Denny

Last year there was a link to a presentation that included the example of the ICE car disrupting the horse and buggy in the early 1900s. The point was that an established technology or product can quickly be disrupted when the newer technology or product is a 10x improvement.

So how would NVDA’s GPUs get disrupted? The new technology or standard would need to be 10x better or close to it. NVDA is riding a double exponential which has its GPUs together with its standard increasing faster than Moore’s Law. NVDA’s rate of improvement is about 3-4x per year. Now if you want to disrupt NVDA you need to be 10x better. But that is today. If your displacement technology or product takes a year to develop then it has to be 30-40x better than today’s NVDA but at least 90x better than next year’s NVDA and at least 270x better than NVDA’s in 2 years!!! The period of disruption is not instantaneous but takes several years. Therefore, it’s really hard to disrupt but disrupting something that’s improving as fast as NVDA’s approach is close to impossible so long as NVDA keeps up its pace.