NVDA: transforming trillion $ industries

https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/2018/05/29/gtc-taiwan-keynote/…

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang announces HGX-2, allowing server manufacturers to build more powerful systems for the world’s largest industries…

GPUs are at the center of a computing ecosystem poised to transform multi-trillion-dollar industries around the world, Huang said. He described a string of breakthroughs in materials science, energy, and medicine that are just within reach with the addition of more computing power.

“Computing demand is greater than ever, so more than ever, we need this computing performance to continue to extend, we need to extend Moore’s law,” Huang told a packed house of more than 2,000 technologists, developers, researchers, government officials and media in Taipei. GTC Taiwan is the second of seven AI conferences NVIDIA will be holding in key tech centers this year…

Huang detailed a “Cambrian explosion” of technologies driven by GPU-powered deep learning. In less than a decade, the computing power of GPUs has grown 20x — representing growth of 1.7x per year, far outstripping Moore’s law, Huang said.

But demand for that power is “growing, not slowing,” thanks to AI, Huang said. “Before this time, software was written by humans and software engineers can only write so much software, but machines don’t get tired,” he quipped.

“As long as there is data, so long as there is knowledge in how to create the architecture, we can create absolute enormous software,” Huang said. “And every single company in the world that develops software will need an AI supercomputer.”

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Huang detailed a “Cambrian explosion” of technologies driven by GPU-powered deep learning. In less than a decade, the computing power of GPUs has grown 20x — representing growth of 1.7x per year, far outstripping Moore’s law, Huang said.

If you know Moore’s Law and you know math you can see the massive mistake in this quote.
So I went back and checked the link. Same error.

Do you see the error? (technically 2 errors)

spoiler … see below

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10 years at 1.7x gives you a 200x speedup, not 20x. Frankly, 20x is not a big deal. 200x is. Moore’s Law is about 2x every 2 years…thus 5 speedups over 10 years or 2^5 or 32x.

Second error that everyone makes. Moore’s Law is about transistors not performance. It is just that the two have roughly correlated for so long that everyone equates them as the same.

Mike

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I don’t know the full quote but the quoted part says “less than a decade” so 5 years is technically less than a decade. Maybe after a full 10 years they will hit 200x?

The 1.7x improvement per year comes about to 201x after 10 years
year 5: 14x
year 6: 24x

Mike

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