I am late to the game on NVDA, just purchasing a starter position 2 weeks ago. I’m thinking of adding to my position here, with the decline today.
For those in this company much longer, am I late to the game? Would you add here? What metrics are you watching to determine when NVDA is starting to have more competition besides revenue and EPS growth?
I know the gamer market is what has propelled this company in the past, and will in the future along with the data center moving to NVDA chips, self driving cars, etc.
My opinion on potentially adding to an NVDA position is tainted/skewed by the fact that it has grown to a >25% position for me (bought it under $18/share in late 2014). I have already trimmed it a little, and may trim it some more in 2018.
A quick look shows a TTM $4.01 EPS. That is a P/E of about 48 or 49 at present prices. How long can they keep growing earnings at anything close to their recent pace…that is the question, of course.
If you are truly a long-term (as in 3+ years) investor, you have a very solid chance of making money in NVDA, even with its multi-year run-up. They are so far ahead of any other competitor in so many fields, and they keep churning out awesome sauce. If they just stay level with the GPU sales and continue to ramp up data center and AI/auto areas, even if the P/E doesn’t change, this could be a $300 stock – easily inside that timeframe (and I think maybe even in 2019 if the market itself doesn’t stumble).
Before I bid you best luck, let me just add that I bought a small-ish starter position in NVDA back in June 2015 at $19.25. I cashed out of that batch when it was in the $70s – no possible way I could do any better… or so I thought. I’ve since gone back in and out and then full-in (now with a quadruple-sized batch), and it keeps growing.
No guarantees, but they are firing on all cylinders pretty much, with not much headwind.
Before I bid you best luck, let me just add that I bought a small-ish starter position in NVDA back in June 2015 at $19.25. I cashed out of that batch when it was in the $70s – no possible way I could do any better… or so I thought. I’ve since gone back in and out and then full-in (now with a quadruple-sized batch), and it keeps growing.
I feel pretty fortunate to have let my shares run from $17.52 to present…other than a small trimming at about $170 the last time that it grew to about 27%. I am thinking now that I will let it ride as high as 30-35% if it wants too. With some short term gains that it already looks like I’ll be having for 2018 (Thanks, Foundation Medicine), I doubt I will be doing anything with my NVDA shares for quite some time.
Perhaps Arista and others can keep up enough to prevent NVDA from growing to a 35% position for me.