Who’s asleep here? Seems amazing!!
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Perfection priced in? (no action after great report).
The after hours pop and the bullish start to the day seems caught in strong fear based (capital preservation - sell the news?)
CNN F/G index at 7 as I type (lowest i’ve EVER seen is 4 - in April). Prior to that, in 2020, the index got to 11 on my watch.
Fear and Greed Index - Investor Sentiment | CNN
On the call, supplier bottlenecks seemed to be the primary concern for continued acceleration. Maybe slowing growth rates (large base, decreasing relative returns) and knock on effects of these constraints?
Maybe macro noise.
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Going in, the fear seemed to be that AI was over or over promised. Nvidia numbers certainly indicate their customers continue to buy. Nvidia is sold out of Blackwell chips and can sell all they can make.
During the silent period two weeks before earnings it’s common for wild rumors to spread. Short sellers and hedge funds are often behind them looking for a quick discount. And Nvidia can’t respond.
The euphoria lasted for a few hours. Then worries returned. I read that an insider had sold $9mm in shares. Investors were not impressed.
We shall see what happens next. Nvidia continues to make money and price falls. So PE falls into “earnings can’t continue to grow” range. A great buying opportunity for those who missed it before. How low will it go?
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Yesterday market moves may not be associated with AI or NVDA. I have this nagging feeling that the decline in Crypto from Oct 10th is the underlying cause for all these declines. Separately, the decline started when Trump tweeted “about seditious behavior and death penalty”. This is not the first time, and if this trend keeps continuing, investors faith in markets will erode.
I don’t believe in conspiracy theories, but I am wondering can there be so many coincidences?
There are also reports that falling crypto prices caused margin calls. Some of those were met by selling stock.
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