NVIDIA looking weak before earnings

Looking at $NVDA, it had a dramatic rise after it’s last earnings report, and of course a massive amount of positive exposure.

But now something close to a head and shoulders pattern has formed in the chart.
Additionally, the RSI on the chart is rather poor.

This suggests to me a good chance the market will be disappointed with the coming quarterly earnings, scheduled to be announced 8/23.

Today, Monday, 21 Aug, 12:40 EDT, NVDA is up $22. Ie up 5%.

So, at this time, the bulls are goring the bears.

I agree the expectations are high.
And Wed, after hours, the Bears might maul the Bulls.
But, right now Mr Market is smiling on NVDA investors.



Hey Ralph,

Yup, you make a great point. And in fact, I’m very bullish in the medium and long term for $NVDA.

But since this is a group that discusses technical analysis, my comments are focused on the short-term, and what I think the chart/technicals may be telling us. And in fact the RSI is still showing some troubling weakness.

Perhaps this big surge in price today breaks the H&S pattern sufficiently to make it more into a consolidation base, preparing for another move upward. Clearly the general consensus in the market is that the stock is gonna go higher, soon.

So for me, net-net, I’ll be wary of this one until it breaks to new highs if that’s the way it’s going. And I will not trade it before the quarterlies come out on Wednesday.

  • Paul
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Expectations are very high and the stock is so high, how can it go higher.

On the other hand, NVDA is the leading AI stock with hardware sold out. Everyone else who wants to do AI has to buy their chips. For now it looks like one of the strongest growth stocks. And one of the few that has profits from AI.

Stay tuned. Wednesday we will know. Until then talking heads will have a field day. But the truth is they don’t know either.


Not to worry. Nvidia has reported outstanding numbers. The stock is up 8+% after hours.

Good to hear you’re not worried.
And exciting news from $NVDA.
Since this is a group that is supposed to be discussing technical analysis, views on what indicators were signaling would have been interesting.

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I’m a novice at options. So. Caveat emptor.

I have a pot of NVDA. I don’t REALLY want to sell em… But… About 3:30pm EDT,
I sold covered calls for 25Aug $550C (this Friday strike $550).
And 01Sep 550C.

I chose 550 strike cause the delta was 0.11, ie low probability of NVDA rising to that price by the expiration, and IV was high.
And 550 was about 15% above the $467 stock price.

If the shares are assigned… I’m ok. I’ll just take some profits, and sit on the other shares.

I didn’t look at sma/em, support or RSI MACD, etc.
The only “resistance” is emotional. LOLOLOL.



I closed this one today for a 99% of the premium.

The other is 15Sep. Not 01Sep.

I could have closed the 15Sep for 60% of the premium, but I think the stock price will stay below 550 … So, I’m gonna let theta decay pay me a bit more.

We’ll see. Rolling the dice is exhilarating?

Update Edit:
Closed the 15Sep 550C today, for 85% of the premium.
I now have no risk exposure on my NVDA shares.
NVDA is cleared for takeoff to $800/share or whatever they saying it’s value is.