A big chunk of those retirements were the Indian Point nuclear plants on the Hudson river. The state politicians tried for years to shut down Indian Point, and they were finally successful. The politicians said that Indian Point was going to be replaced with clean renewables, but of course that never happened. Indian Point was largely replaced with natural gas fossil fuel power plants.
From the link: Indian Point was mostly replaced with natural gas, not renewables. In the first full month after closure, New York’s carbon emissions from in-state generation rose 35 percent.
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In 2019, when Indian Point units 2 and 3 were running, natural gas power generation in the state was 49,315 GWh. In 2023, natural gas generation was 59,514 GWh.
In 2019, New York’s power sector CO2 intensity was 415 lbs per MWh. By 2023, after Indian Point 2 and 3 shut down, the CO2 intensity increased to 522 lbs/MWh.
If you want to convince people that the increasing CO2 air concentration is a big problem, then maybe you shouldn’t implement policies that make CO2 emissions go up? Just a thought.
Someone make a note here, Steve and DB are on the same side of an issue.
Besides, we know how to generate carbon free electricity 24/7. How many nukes could be built for the tens of Billions that are being sunk into developing and building EVs, and installing charging networks, for them?
To put a couple numbers on that, according to Mr Google, Vogtle Units 3 and 4 cost $36.8 billion to build. In 2022, Ford Motor, alone, projected it’s investment in EVs to crack $50B by 2026. In 2023, Ford’s US market share was a paltry 13%. Extrapolating, getting EV penetration to 100% in the US would cost over $380B to reinvent transportation by road vehicles, enough for 10 Vogtle units 3 and 4, or 22,340 megawatts. That is enough to completely replace over 10% of coal fired capacity, and zero out their carbon emissions, rather than shifting carbon emissions to another location.
But the new GIC say climate change is a hoax, and increased atmospheric CO2 is good. I would not be surprised to see a mandated increase in coal consumption, which was attempted on the last go around.
One year of data is not enough to make any general conclusions. What happened in 2020, 2921, 2022, and 2023? Are New York State utilities contracting for cheaper electricity from Canada or Pennsylvania?
The problem is that there isn’t any interest by utilities to go for a 2 unit large nuclear power plant. It is to risky for the utilities. Utilities like the natural gas, solar and wind energy sources for power generation which are all predictable, cheap to build and safe.
When the moon is in the seventh house And Jupiter aligns with Mars Then peace will guide the planets And love will steer the stars. This is the dawning of the age of Aquarius…
As Pete pointed out, the largest single change was the closing of Indian Point, some 2000 MW which was replaced largely by nat gas plants. But even with them New York has still lost generation capacity.
That doesn’t speak well toward their capacity for rational change, as the state is also pushing for increased electrification both in transportation and (more significantly) in heating.
Every year New York puts out a report called RNA (Reliability Needs Assessment). Here are a couple of graphs from the 2024 report:
Grid energy is a hard problem for everyone these days with climate change, crypto mining, and the rise of data centers, so why focus on NYC? Consider Houston and the entire state of Texas for example, an area known for its conservative government and fossil fuels.
In fact, fossil fuel burning red states seem to be disproportionately listed among those with the least reliable energy grids. Look at coal-burning West Virginia or oil-pumping Texas. These States Get the Most Power Outages - CNET
It’s New York State, and they conveniently put out an annual report (this year and last have been previously linked on this board).
While both states have grid problems (some of New York’s are discussed in the RNA report) New York has been reducing its generation capacity while that of Texas has been growing, up some 20% since 2019.
Point is NY state and City have time to deal with the issue. One program being pushed is to improve energy efficiency by incentives to improve home insulation and buy energy saving appliances. Rooftop solar is being emphasized as well as new transmission lines.
So places like Texas and Arizona have rolling blackouts while NY state and NYC are good for another 10 years. Which areas do you think are running their grids better?
I do not understand why you are so worried about NYISO. This reports explains their path forward:
Next Steps
This RNA identifies that the New York City (Zone J) will be deficient starting in 2033 with a deficiency of 17 MW for 1 hour in summer 2033 that grows to 97 MW for 3 hours in summer 2034 on the peak day during expected weather conditions when accounting for forecasted economic growth and policy-driven increases in demand. Following approval of this RNA by the NYISO Board of Directors, the NYISO will commence the process detailed in its procedures to seek system updates that are relevant to reducing, or eliminating, the identified Reliability Need. This process is for the purpose of minimizing unnecessary solicitations of solutions to the Reliability Need. The NYISO will request updates to the status of proposed projects, such as Local Transmission Owner Plans, proposed generation and transmission additions, development of discrete large loads, demand response, and other status updates relevant to reducing, or eliminating, the Reliability Need. The NYISO will consider timely updates that meet the inclusion rules, and if necessary, will solicit solutions to any remaining Reliability Need.
Let’s hope New York works things out. But the ice they are skating on is getting thinner. From the RNA:
This 2024 RNA continues to observe a declining statewide system margin due to increased demand, anticipated generation retirements without adequate new generation addition, and the unavailability of non-firm gas during winter peak conditions.
The above are full-year numbers. For the first 9 months of 2024, natural gas-fired electricity generation in New York was 49,117 GWh. This compares to 44,139 GWh produced in the first 9 months of 2023. This is an 11.3% increase.
As with much of the rest of the US, power generation from natural gas is increasing. This is a most curious way to get to net zero. Perhaps the more important goal is simply to keep the lights on.
