West Texas Intermediate Crude is still above its 10 year moving average by about 30 percent. This pretty big and will keep the economy energy constrained. Add in labor constraint and if the Fed ever gets real interest rates positive, you would have all three gross inputs into the economy providing constraint.

However, the chart is showing no support until 65 dollars a barrel and that is about energy the energy constraint ends.



The main test of support seems to be $72. That is a possible bottom. The economic issue is how deep the recession slow downs are globally. If it is mainly China in a depression that is not necessarily enough to drive the market below $72 bbl.

But the reality of TA in general and that statement no calculations have been made to support that figure. The market is a very dynamic moving target and measurements would be meaningless a month from now.