Okta 2018 Investor Day

Hi Bear,

I guess someone could buy them. What I’m more concerned about is that someone (or multiple someones) will incorporate a similar solution into their more valuable and increasingly ubiquitous product (say Zscaler) and render Okta somewhat obsolete.

That is possible but I think OKTA is embedded in the companies that have gone to them for security of their passwords. They have allowed OKTA to store their employees, vendors and customers passwords on their site. Also, Okta is a cloud solution built from the bottom up as a cloud solution. They have built links to most of the popular Apps and allows their customers to request and build apps for other products they want access to. I think it would be hard for other companies to catch up with them now. Zscaler possibly could because I think they have the same customer admiration. But I could see Cisco buying them. Or better yet ZS and Okta merging.

Andy

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“Only” an identity management platform is like saying that Twilio is “only” a communication API. What they both do is very valuable and difficult to reproduce, even though many can try.

To put things in perspective, although Zs is a platform, and Twilio and Okta may be API plug-ins into the software stack, Zscaler itself is a plug in for VMWare, for Azure, as examples, that are even larger platforms, and form part of their software stack.

Zscaler I am sure works with Nutanix as well, although I am not aware of an official plug-in and partnership with Nutanix as VMWare has. Nevertheless, Nutanix is not going to do what Zscaler does either, anymore than VMWare is. Nutanix is looking to provide security, but security throughout the network that is not covered by traditional solutions (whatever that means).

There are platforms incorporating platforms, incorporating platforms. Microservices. Some are more valuable then others in terms of value add.

Bert had an interesting point about this from an Alteryx article he did last year. In it he compared Alteryx with Microsoft Bi, Tableu and Qiu (or whatever that company is). All the comparables were mostly visual and not analytical or ETL like, nor machine learning implementation.

Bert concluded that Alteryx created a much better value add than these visual programs, which is why their businesses have not been very successful in the scheme of things.

In the same way some of these platforms that become plug-ins for other platforms (as Okta is a platform, Twilio is a platform) provide greater value add than others. The ones that do not provide enough value add will not have sufficient economic returns in the end to make them great investments.

I bought Twilio at the IPO and identified it immediately as something special. I also sold it at the top when the secondary happened (as I had seen that before) and then turned on it with the Uber thing because I figured it Uber could take it internally, then any enormous consumer could do the same thus limiting Twilio’s value add. Others had similar concerns because of the lower gross margins due to having to pay public communication access fees and whether or not they can ever become greatly profitable.

That conclusion may turn out to be wrong.

But to cut it short, and make no conclusions other than set out the idea, consistent with Bert’s point, those platforms that provide enough value add may be great long-term investments. It is up to us to figure which of these companies are those companies.

Tinker

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Okta already has pretty similar competition: Auth0, for instance.

Here’s some reading material:
https://hackernoon.com/authentication-as-a-service-an-honest…

https://ponyfoo.com/articles/okta-auth0-and-the-goblet-of-id…

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https://www.owler.com/company/auth0

Auth0 estimated revenues $18.5 million. This number may not be accurate but it is the best I can do because Auth0 will not tell us their revenues. Instead they say their revenues grew 100% and added 1500 new customers. However, they give no details as to numbers or what business they are actually doing with these customers:

https://auth0.com/blog/auth0-announces-record-year/

When looking at technology companies it does not do any good, normally, to look compare different technologies and offerings. The best technology does not always win, and the best technology is not always the best technology on a utilitarian basis (Beta had better picture quality than VHS, but VHS had more capacity. The market settled for lower video quality but more data capacity to hold more of the movies and extras).

Looking at the numbers, Auth0 may be great, but the market has not made the company anything more than an ant in the field. If anyone can find a better revenue number for us let us know.

Thanks.

Tinker

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https://techcrunch.com/2018/05/15/auth0-snags-55m-series-d-s…

They have raised $110 million in VC money, which is substantial. So they are a legitimate outfit, but they are still a very small fish in the market.

The good thing about quarterly reports, is if Okta is seeing some sort of competition that is material you will see it in the earnings calls.

Tinker

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A article from IBD on Okta. Among the things mentioned were some of Okta’s competitors namely Microsoft, Ping Identity and Centrify while in the mobile device management business, rivals include MobileIron, VMware’s (VMW) AirWatch, and BlackBerry’s (BB) Good Technology.

I was aware of Microsoft as a competitor but I was not aware of the others. Gartner gives the full list of competitors here: https://www.gartner.com/reviews/market/access-management/ven…

Microsoft Identity and Access Management: https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/cloud-platform/identity-mana…

Ping Identity: https://www.pingidentity.com/en.html

Centrify: https://www.centrify.com/

MobileIron: https://www.mobileiron.com/en/welcome-era-modern-work

VMware’s (VMW) AirWatch: https://www.air-watch.com/

BlackBerry’s (BB) Good Technology (Now called Blackberry Work): https://us.blackberry.com/enterprise/gfe-upgrade

While Okta has many competitors according to Gartner, the only one close to being in Okta’s class seems to be Microsoft where Microsoft gets rated as being ahead in completeness of vision, while Okta gets rated as being ahead in the ability to execute: https://www.okta.com/resources/access-management-leader-gart…

By REINHARDT KRAUSE, IBD 10/10/2018:

Cybersecurity firm Okta (OKTA) forecast revenue growth above 30% over the next five years at its analyst day this week. But a broad sell-off in technology companies on Wednesday sent Okta stock down despite the rosy outlook.

cont’d

https://www.investors.com/news/technology/okta-stock-cyberse…

Starrob

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