old dealraker makes bold prediction

OK, here it is and if I am wrong I expect to be publicly restrained…and beaten:

Tesla, from its current stock price, is in the process of being cut in half before the downturn is over.

Now-now-now boys and girls, I said nothing about the business nor Elon-the-Great who is surely Elon-th-first as to invention kingdom. I am merely stalking stock price.

And in my view the stock will still be over-priced.

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It’s already down from its November peak 40% 1222 to 784. Why can’t it drop to 30 times earnings if valuations matter? Say $5 and $150 a share…

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Why can’t it drop to 30 times earnings

I hope it does. I own a ton of TSLA and would love to buy much more.
With gas prices at all time highs, demand is through the roof.
EV is the future as all car companies are pivoting now.

Cybertruck, Semi, Optimus, GigaTexas, GigaBerlin, GigaShanghai, Energy, FSD, 4680 battery cells - all coming together very very nicely.

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At what price does he get a margin call on his twitter loan?

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Word

Divi, how do you value a company like Tesla?

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30 times earnings assumes earnings don’t go down…right?

*Divi, how do you value a company like Tesla?* 

Date	         NetIncome Quarterly ($B)	Market Cap
------------------------------------------------------------------
03/31/22	 $3,318 	                $721B      PE: 54
12/31/21	 $2,321 	
09/30/21	 $1,618 	
06/30/21	 $1,142 	
03/31/21	 $438 	
12/31/20	 $301 	
09/30/20	 $300 	
06/30/20	 $104 	
03/31/20	 $16
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Any EV has to see improvement in charging time to be practical in the western USA. It is 24 hours of driving between our two houses. I drove five hours for my first three Covid vaccines. My favorite recreation is fishing remote mountain streams. No time and few places to charge in my current universe, and it only gets worse if you actually want a heater.

I saw some interesting statistics about second cars…if someone has an EV they are unlikely to add another. They need a commuter vehicle and a practical one.

I’d be surprised if the twit actually gets twitter.

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Hi Duvi.

I meant what’s your Intrinsic Value for the company and how did you go about it?

Then there are fools like me that commute around big cities – no more than 20-40 miles per day and revel at never going to gas stations again and setting it on autopilot as the freeway crawls along at 10mph or less.

For the big city commuters, the EV’s (specifically Teslas) are as life changing as switching from Blackberry to iPhone.

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30 times earnings assumes earnings don’t go down…right?

Certainly possible. But they just, approximately, doubled their production capacity (Berlin and TX) and have a wait list that is, for some models, a year long. They are considering closing the pre-order wait list for some models. The primary purpose is so they can be more sure of the production costs that far out.

Do you really think that, say, in a year their earnings will be lower?
I’m guessing that their earnings will be closer to double than lower than today.

Unlike the traditional dealer method of selling high demand cars, when Tesla raises prices they get the extra margin, not the dealers as usually happens.

With the Ukraine war. I think the EU will increase EV purchasing incentives…Tesla seems to have built the Berlin factory just in time.

Mike

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Mike,

Stuff in the pot occasionally needs a stir.

What does that have to do with Tesla’s ability to make and deliver cars, mostly already on order from a willing customer?
Please explain.
(talking about earnings, not the multiple applied to it)

Mike

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Short it…

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I just sort of did the short take on my net worth in this what many call massive correction with a generational opportunity. I was briefly down about 9% or so.

Shocking. Opportunities of a lifetime abound!

I posted TSLA earnings when they came out and it offended many and the post was deleted.

Lots of snowflakes with tender egos on the board.

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I posted TSLA earnings when they came out and it offended many and the post was deleted.
Your post with T… earnings is still here. You posted it in reply to Blackswanny’s

Divi, how do you value a company like Tesla?
May I suggest you confused two I have heard not always perfectly identical things?
With the poor guy who asked you so nicely therefore still without answer from you?

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My TSLA earnings post was a couple of weeks ago with earnings details
and many snowflakes with tender egos did not like it.

It got deleted.

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OK, here it is and if I am wrong I expect to be publicly restrained…and beaten:

Tesla, from its current stock price, is in the process of being cut in half before the downturn is over.

And in my view the stock will still be over-priced.

And how do YOU value a company which is selling 50% more $50k+ cars per year at >30% margins? Which has a waiting list growing faster than its car output is growing? Which has two models (Semi and Cybertruck) waiting to be built until Tesla can come up with a good business reason to interrupt the full output of its factories in existing models being snapped up to switch over to one of these other highly sold vehicles?

It won’t be hard for me to remember your prediction. While you are predicting the stock will see $360 before it sees $1000 (is that a reasonable quantification of "before the downturn is over?), I was doubling my leverage (from straight stock to deep in money LEAPS) on TSLA). I’ll let you know how that works out and just how accurate a barometer of the stock market your unsolicited schadenfreude is.

Cheers,
R:)

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