# On relevancy + irrelevancy - Saul's performa

Saul,

In your December 2018-end summary, you wrote the below -

“For the last 10 years (since the end of 2008), my portfolio is up 1,036%. (It’s at 1,136% of where it started, or more than 11 times where it started, a more than an 11-bagger, for those who count baggers.)”

Today, you have written the below -

“My portfolio investing growth has been a gain of 15.6 TIMES since the end of 2008…”

Can you please explain how your portfolio went from being an 11-bagger (from end of December 2008 until end of December 2018) to a 15.6-bagger (from end of December 2008 until 2 April 2019)?

In your latest month-end summary, you stated that you were up 30-something % since the start of the year; so how did your portfolio manage to become a 15.6 bagger (from 11 bagger) in just 3 months and 3 days?

Its okay if you don’t want to answer or if you get my post deleted by one of your board assistants; because after today, I’m not coming back to this board anyway.

GM

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I would guess a 30% gain on what his portfolion was at the end of December has a massive effect on his returns because of the compounding over the years

Call me silly but I trust Saul. Never tried to sell anything or benefit from us.

Also since I started following this method my returns have been similar to Saul’s. Enough proof for me.

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Unfortunately, -1 rec is not an available option. Thank you Saul for all that you do.

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Let’s say you start with \$1. Down the road your investments are worth \$10. You have a 10-bagger. You make 30% in the next 3 months. You now have \$13. You have gone from a 10-bagger to a 13-bagger in 3 months due to your 30% gain. It’s just math.

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11.36 * 1.37 = 15.6

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I hope you reconsider leaving this board, GM, you brought many good companies to the board for discussion in my mind. One in particular (STNE), that I invested in after your write up has been a double in less than 2 months for me and I expect it to go much higher (maybe not in the same time frame)! Just can’t beat that, and I have you to thank for that.

It’s too bad a discussion that wandered off our core subject (discussing high growth companies) may end up causing you to leave. I for one think it’s good to have many different opinions on the boards to avoid the group think and confirmation bias.

Best of luck to you, and hope you stay around.

I also thank all the regulars here, and of course Saul for managing the board as best as possible.

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In your December 2018-end summary, you wrote the below -“For the last 10 years (since the end of 2008), my portfolio is up 1,036%. (It’s at 1,136% of where it started, or more than 11 times where it started, a more than an 11-bagger, for those who count baggers.)” Today, you have written the below -
“My portfolio investing growth has been a gain of 15.6 TIMES since the end of 2008…” Can you please explain how your portfolio went from being an 11-bagger (from end of December 2008 until end of December 2018) to a 15.6-bagger (from end of December 2008 until 2 April 2019)? In your latest month-end summary, you stated that you were up 30-something % since the start of the year; so how did your portfolio manage to become a 15.6 bagger (from 11 bagger) in just 3 months and 3 days?

Hi GM, there’s no inconsistency at all.

Up 1036% means 1136 percent of where it started. At the end of March I was up 36.9% year to date. 36.9% of 1136% is 419%. Add 419% to 1136% and you get 1555%!!!

GM, of course an 11.4 bagger that rises 36.9% becomes a 15.5 bagger. There’s nothing phony or magical about it.

If you are still not convinced, take \$1000, which is up 1036%. It’s now worth \$11,360. If that goes up another 36.9% it’s \$15,552. There’s your 15.6 bagger.

I hope you won’t quit the board just because you didn’t understand that.

Saul

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Can you please explain how your portfolio went from being an 11-bagger (from end of December 2008 until end of December 2018) to a 15.6-bagger (from end of December 2008 until 2 April 2019)?

Starting value, December 2008: \$1,000
Ending value, December 2018: \$11,360 (1,136% of starting value)
Add 36.9% gain so far in 2019 [\$4,191]: \$15,551 (1,555% of starting value)

Its okay if you don’t want to answer or if you get my post deleted by one of your board assistants; because after today, I’m not coming back to this board anyway.

For whatever it’s worth coming from a lurker, I greatly appreciate the opposing points of view that are presented on the board. As I seek to educate myself on what factors are important to evaluate, how others dissect, analyze, and assess companies, and the thought processes people follow when making decisions, I think it’s entirely appropriate - if not necessary - to challenge the conventional wisdom and validate the approaches that are being used in a respectful, collegial manner. I try to interpret and understand the points-of-view of both the cheerleaders and detractors and make the decision for myself of which evidence I find to be more compelling and ultimately which approach is more closely aligned with my own investment strategy, risk tolerance, and goals.

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That demonstrates well how larger than normal returns very quickly reach absurdly large returns if they get a chance to compound for a few years.

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Its okay if you don’t want to answer or if you get my post deleted by one of your board assistants; because after today, I’m not coming back to this board anyway.
GM

You must be having a bad day GM.

https://discussion.fool.com/saul-your-longterm-performance-is-in…

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GM

I’ve been reading your posts on other boards for years and always enjoyed your take on things.

I too was admittedly skeptical of Saul’s past performance when I first joined this board in 2014. A couple years later I no longer had any doubt that it’s all legitimate, and I’ve been fortunate enough to reap the benefits of this community of generous folks and grow my banana stash for a few years since

-mekong

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I’m stayin’. Saul can’t drive me away! No sirree!

Saul,

I read your post shortly after waking up this morning and recalled what you’d written at December-end. Without thinking things through and doing some basic maths calculations, I doubted your numbers and fired off that post.

This is very unlike me (and although I can just walk away without saying a word); I owe you an apology on this board - based on the numbers which you have been posting and your YTD performance; the 15.6 bagger is right.

So, please accept my sincere apology - I’m feeling pretty dumb and remorseful right now!

GM

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Don’t worry about it GM, I’ve had some bad days myself at times. I fully accept your apology and I apologize to you myself if some of my posts have seemed a bit sarcastic at times. Glad you’ll be staying as you add a lot to the board.

best wishes,

Saul

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Saul,

You don’t owe me any apology - all of us post our thoughts on this board and sometimes, we passionately disagree about certain things - that is what makes this board a great place!

It wouldn’t be much fun or constructive if everybody agreed with each other all the time.

Anyhow, I’m truly sorry for my earlier post and next time, I’ll think long and hard before tapping my fingers on the keyboard.

All the best,

GM

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Diversity of thought is a wonderful thing and I do like having a broad range of inputs to draw on. Ultimately we must each own our own investment decisions and apply a framework that suits our worldview.

I learn from both Saul and GM regularly - I do hope that you will stay GM as I enjoy your writings as well as Saul’s

Cheers

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Wow! Wonderful humility on both your parts. Thanks for your example. The world really could use it in mending relationships.

Warmly, John

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GM -
It’s pretty simple math. It would mean, ballpark, up 40% YTD, which is probably around an average for a portfolio of these stocks in 2019. It’s the magic of compounding.

AB2SS

Saul and GM,
This has been one of the most inspiring threads I’ve read in quite a long time. Especially in the times we are living in now.

Both of you deserve a Medal of Honor for showing compassion and understanding. We don’t get to witness very often two people actually resolving an issue with the dignity you two guys just displayed.

A new level of respect for both of you. Thanks for this lesson. As good as it gets.

Chris

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GrowthMonkey, I am also glad that you have decided to stay.

Your thoughts are surely valued, and you are also one of the more internationally diversified investors here, bringing interesting non-US companies like STNE to the board.

So, if we can get back to discuss individual growth stocks, I would love to hear your thoughts on the preliminary Q1 results and the Follow-on Offering from the last few days

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