Walmart CEO John Furner recently identified one particular source of pressure.
“That’s really the stress point, is the price of fuel,” Furner said (2), adding, “Hopefully, we see some relief on energy prices.”
Walmart CFO John David Rainey has pointed to an even more tangible sign of the squeeze: Customers were filling their gas tanks with fewer than 10 gallons per visit on average.
“That’s an indication of stress,” Rainey said (3).
And the pressure may not stay confined to the pump. Rainey warned that persistently high fuel costs could eventually feed into the prices of other products, as transportation and energy expenses work their way through the economy.
Bank of America’s own customer data tells a similar story.
Its May 2026 Consumer Checkpoint showed overall spending growth, but it also found (4) “signs of stress beneath the surface for some households.”
In particular, lower- and middle-income households were pulling back on discretionary spending, while the wage gains enjoyed by lower-income households over the previous year were barely enough to cover their increase in gasoline spending.
TransUnion is seeing the strain from another angle: Americans’ credit profiles.
Headline inflation may have cooled from its pandemic-era highs, but the cost-of-living crisis is still hitting consumers where it hurts.
That’s part of it. The other part is the volatility of prices. I normally just fill the tank, but if looks as though prices are in a down swing (good news from the Gulf, perhaps) I will put in a few gallons and then top off in a few days.
A much better indicator is credit card delinquencies, retail sales. Consumer has been very resilient, and of course they have pretty much spend all the tax returns… and may go into a bit of savings mode… but recession? Especially when the markets are hitting all time highs?
In particular, lower- and middle-income households were pulling back on discretionary spending, while the wage gains enjoyed by lower-income households over the previous year were barely enough to cover their increase in gasoline spending.
I’m rather pessimistic about the economy especially in regard to oil & the belief that AI will result in a dot.com type sell off.
Last March I reduced my tech exposure and moved that money toward US value & international stocks.
Future recession or not, I’m remaining in the market. Any new money I’m receiving is on the side lines in cash & short term CDs. If I’m correct that we are in a bubble type market that money will be deployed when the market sell off occurs. If that doesn’t occur. I am still benefiting somewhat in the every increasing market valuation.
Sometime back I posted on this… The media and pundits obsess about Oil, but Oil is no longer a strong driver like it used to be in the past. For lower income US households, Gas is only 5% of their expense and this goes down to 3% as you move into middle class, upper middle class.
Let it sink. The media and a section of economists obsess about Oil, but they no longer impact household budget as they did in the past. Oil has to go above $150, much more closer to $200 for households to be impacted.
Everyone is expecting a big selloff similar to dotcom bubble… you don’t get to euphoric stage of the bubble with everyone worrying. You get there when everyone throws caution, and wants to get into the trade… This market had a rotational bear market across sectors for the last 12 months… Indexes sort of deceives you.
We all invest according to our personal situation, outlook. But, the market doesn’t work on our timeline. So, sometimes, you need to continue to stay in the game… keep dancing until the music stops.
Retail sales dropped in July. I’m not predicting a recession mind you, but generally not good news.
WASHINGTON, Aug 14 (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales fell in July for the first time in nine months as the boost from big tax refunds faded, suggesting that consumer spending was slowing down and prompting economists to slash their economic growth estimates for the third quarter.