One more step away from the US dollar

Sounds like a nothing but these two countries have over one-fifth of the world’s population:

Death by a thousand cuts!

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Irrelevant. What matters is trade, not population. On that front, they’re a long way down.

You’d need a trillion cuts to make a difference, given the economic base line.

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15% of the world’s GDP I think.

I would back India rather than China to be the next world’s superpower.


I though so too. But India has to increase its GDP by 4 times to catch up with China.

If, and this is a big if, China stagnates at zero percent GDP growth for a generation, and India maintains an average growth of 9 percent for 20 years, India could over take China in a generation.

If China has even 3 percent growth, India would have to maintain an average of 12 percent growth for 20 years to catch up.

I suspect this would be a significant challenge. However, if India and China became economic allies, and both remained on some semblance of growth for another decade, the combined economic power would be significantly greater than the economic power of the USA and would probably challenge “the west”.



If China can maintain 3% growth WHILE declining by close to 100 million people, that would be quite the feat!

India, on the other hand, will gain over 200 million during this period, so they have a chance, but 12% sustained is really quite high and depends on everything going right, all the time. That’s not likely to happen.

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