OT - A turning point?

Investment Analysis Clubs Saul’s Investing Discussions
1

OT – this is very OT for our board so please don’t respond on the board and get an OT thread started. If you feel you really want to tell me something, please respond directly, off-board.

I decided to take a look backward at the progress of my portfolio:


**Jun 15  	up 60.2%, a top**
**Jun 29  					up 44.3% 	a bottom and it bounced**
**Jul 20  	up 61.5%, a top**
**Jul 31  					up 43.6% 	a 2nd bottom and it bounced**
**Sep 11  	up 96.2%, a top.**
**Oct 11  					up 48.5%	a 3rd bottom and it bounced**
**Oct 16          up 65.2%  a top.**
**Oct 19  					up 49.7% 	a 4th bottom and it bounced**
**Oct 22          up 54.4%  a top**
**Oct 25  		                        up 44.9% 	a 5th bottom and it bounced**
**Thurs           up 53.0%  a top** 
**Yesterday					up 47.2%	a 6th bottom and it bounced** 
**Today	        up 54.4%**

I usually pay little or no attention to technical indicators, but this one was staring me right in the face: So what do I see? I see a lot of support for my stocks in the same range, six bottoms in about the same place, too bunched for coincidence, with bounces off them. Here they are in order of the size of the gain of my portfolio year to date:
43.6
44.3
44.9
47.7
48.5
49.7
Each time making a low and bouncing. Today tacking on 7.2% from yesterdays close of up 47.2%.

That doesn’t give any assurance that the next time it won’t go right on through to 35%, 30%, 25% or whatever, but for now it sure looks like we are at a turn-around place, where our stocks will bounce.

Saul

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2

Sorry Saul, had to reply on board…

So we all know Saul is actually Warren Buffet and he has a large enough portfolio to turn these stocks around when they get to a “low” of up only 43% YTD.

Thank you Warren for setting the bottom for us.

On a serious note, these moves are natural (and healthy) in the stocks we are invested in, we just hadn’t seen it happen to them all at once this drastically in a while. Also, the news headlines are all so negative that it has to be a long term buy signal, and these are GREAT BUSINESSES which will rebound sharply. Or, they’ll become acquisition targets if they go too low. Absolutely none of them are at risk of failing as a business in any way what so ever at this point.

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