I said OT! You can stop if you have the willpower
In a dreary day where it is harder to be optimistic about our companies’ prospects, I will stray off course for a second.
So, what may some say about our charts:
In general, they suck. Most are below key moving averages, most are down in strong volume. What else…
Looking at the weekly chart, some might see strong support in the mid $20s, where it spent lots of time in 2014. Selling volume has been strong and continuous since January. Not comforting. PE at 15 now.
Earnings Feb 9.
In late 2014 there were a string of months where it bounced up against $20 before it finally took off. Volume has been well below average last few weeks, very interesting - all the big sells done?
Earnings March 10-14.
recent low of $58.50 which also matches up with 2014 Sept resistance at about same price. Volume above avg since Jan. Not surprising.
Recent lows around $24.5 are approaching and match up with our breakout point back in April 2015. Some people call that support. These are also 2014 prices. Fighting to pop up above the 50dma (which is under the 200dma, a bad TA thing). Below average volume since December, again somewhat comforting.
50 and 200 dma converging and price hovering just below both. We broke out from the $25 area back in the summer and might be seeing some support there. That is the same price that set a high back in March 2014, which led to the 15 month base that we broke out of last summer. Coincidence? Probably. Volume above avg since Jan.
From Oct 2013 to OCt 2015 INFN built a long base with a top around $12. It rocketed out of that to $25 in April of 2015. At a current price of $14 it might not take much to see a 2014 buy price again. Even though the Yahoo PE is 42, we have certainly grown sales and earnings since then. Volume has been about average since Jan. Earnings Feb 11.
Just a day ago we rocketed higher on strong volume after good earnings. Perhaps a sell candidate to buy our bleeding brothers like INFN? Fiber component makers have recently shot up on 100G Metro sales, why not INFN?
Ugh. High volume sell offs this week. No pretense of chart support, below 2014 lows already. But bounced up 8% today on share buyback news.
has been holding up great, but succumbed today a bit. Good news is sell off volume has been below average perhaps saying no one really wants to sell it, but they just have to as their fund shareholders panic. Which is to say, it might have a good chance of new highs when the market turns north again. (not that it would outperform our really beaten down stocks, but they also might keep falling faster than CASY). It would need to fall all the way to 105 to find the 200dma. Looking strong.
$700-$500, or about 30%. Not unreasonable for a growth stock in a correction, but down below the 200dma. 40-50% becomes harder to recover from, but it is AMZN and will someday hit new highs. It was a long rund from $350 and we just gave half of that back. Much higher than average volume since Jan, maybe that was a sign. Some might see support in the $450 area.
very heavy volume since Jan. Like most other things has gone down at least 20% for its own “bear” market. We are around with a recent low of $93 and a matching low in the August flash crash. We can hope that will be our limit. There is also congestion around that price in fall of 2014. Yes, another stock back to 2014 prices.
Some might see it leveling off here over last few weeks. Below avg volume over last few weeks and last couple days is hopeful. The recent divorce from GPro might bring good luck - there will be new growth in the spring Our recent mid $30s lows seem to correlate with congestion back in late 2013 to early 2014. If you look at enough stuff something will always match up with a story. Another stock at 2014 prices - or 2013 prices. Such a deal.
This little fella got gutted in mid December on huge volume. All those sellers are gone the the recent turmoil has been brushed off. Even up a bit today and well off Jan lows. Not testing the 200dma resistance yet.
seemed to find a double-bottom around $128 not long ago, matching the August flash crash. Another coincidence. Nice move off that low with some increasing volume on the way up. Little dip today but on below avg volume. Some strength showing. It may be in remission.
Probably the strongest of the herd with 6 consecutive up days, some with slightly above average volume. Nice. Above the 200 and 50 dma. Still benefiting from that strong run up on great volume in Nov.
Non TA stuff…
We are at 2014 prices in many cases, but as we know from our fundamental analysis we have much higher sales and earnings. Are these sales and earnings going away for a long time? Are they just muted for a while? Are they still growing fast, but we are only victims of the overall market. You do the math. Like they say, the average stock’s price move is 75% due to the market.
So why don’t I go to another board to post this crap? Because you guys are my family now and I love you, so why would I go somewhere else?