OT: Chart Chat

I said OT! You can stop if you have the willpower :wink:

In a dreary day where it is harder to be optimistic about our companies’ prospects, I will stray off course for a second.

So, what may some say about our charts:

In general, they suck. Most are below key moving averages, most are down in strong volume. What else…

CBM
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?cbm
Looking at the weekly chart, some might see strong support in the mid $20s, where it spent lots of time in 2014. Selling volume has been strong and continuous since January. Not comforting. PE at 15 now.
Earnings Feb 9.

LGIH
In late 2014 there were a string of months where it bounced up against $20 before it finally took off. Volume has been well below average last few weeks, very interesting - all the big sells done?
Earnings March 10-14.

SWKS
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?swks
recent low of $58.50 which also matches up with 2014 Sept resistance at about same price. Volume above avg since Jan. Not surprising.

SKX
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?skx
Recent lows around $24.5 are approaching and match up with our breakout point back in April 2015. Some people call that support. These are also 2014 prices. Fighting to pop up above the 50dma (which is under the 200dma, a bad TA thing). Below average volume since December, again somewhat comforting.

INBK
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?inbk
50 and 200 dma converging and price hovering just below both. We broke out from the $25 area back in the summer and might be seeing some support there. That is the same price that set a high back in March 2014, which led to the 15 month base that we broke out of last summer. Coincidence? Probably. Volume above avg since Jan.

INFN
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?infn
From Oct 2013 to OCt 2015 INFN built a long base with a top around $12. It rocketed out of that to $25 in April of 2015. At a current price of $14 it might not take much to see a 2014 buy price again. Even though the Yahoo PE is 42, we have certainly grown sales and earnings since then. Volume has been about average since Jan. Earnings Feb 11.

SEDG
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?sedg
Just a day ago we rocketed higher on strong volume after good earnings. Perhaps a sell candidate to buy our bleeding brothers like INFN? Fiber component makers have recently shot up on 100G Metro sales, why not INFN?

SNCR
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?sncr
Ugh. High volume sell offs this week. No pretense of chart support, below 2014 lows already. But bounced up 8% today on share buyback news.
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/02/05/why-synchro…

CASY
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?casy
has been holding up great, but succumbed today a bit. Good news is sell off volume has been below average perhaps saying no one really wants to sell it, but they just have to as their fund shareholders panic. Which is to say, it might have a good chance of new highs when the market turns north again. (not that it would outperform our really beaten down stocks, but they also might keep falling faster than CASY). It would need to fall all the way to 105 to find the 200dma. Looking strong.

AMZN
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?AMZN
$700-$500, or about 30%. Not unreasonable for a growth stock in a correction, but down below the 200dma. 40-50% becomes harder to recover from, but it is AMZN and will someday hit new highs. It was a long rund from $350 and we just gave half of that back. Much higher than average volume since Jan, maybe that was a sign. Some might see support in the $450 area.

CELG
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?celg
very heavy volume since Jan. Like most other things has gone down at least 20% for its own “bear” market. We are around with a recent low of $93 and a matching low in the August flash crash. We can hope that will be our limit. There is also congestion around that price in fall of 2014. Yes, another stock back to 2014 prices.

AMBA
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?amba
Some might see it leveling off here over last few weeks. Below avg volume over last few weeks and last couple days is hopeful. The recent divorce from GPro might bring good luck - there will be new growth in the spring :wink: Our recent mid $30s lows seem to correlate with congestion back in late 2013 to early 2014. If you look at enough stuff something will always match up with a story. Another stock at 2014 prices - or 2013 prices. Such a deal.

PN
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?pn
This little fella got gutted in mid December on huge volume. All those sellers are gone the the recent turmoil has been brushed off. Even up a bit today and well off Jan lows. Not testing the 200dma resistance yet.

SBNY
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?sbny
seemed to find a double-bottom around $128 not long ago, matching the August flash crash. Another coincidence. Nice move off that low with some increasing volume on the way up. Little dip today but on below avg volume. Some strength showing. It may be in remission.

MITK
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?mitk
Probably the strongest of the herd with 6 consecutive up days, some with slightly above average volume. Nice. Above the 200 and 50 dma. Still benefiting from that strong run up on great volume in Nov.

Non TA stuff…
We are at 2014 prices in many cases, but as we know from our fundamental analysis we have much higher sales and earnings. Are these sales and earnings going away for a long time? Are they just muted for a while? Are they still growing fast, but we are only victims of the overall market. You do the math. Like they say, the average stock’s price move is 75% due to the market.

So why don’t I go to another board to post this crap? Because you guys are my family now and I love you, so why would I go somewhere else?

56 Likes

Follow the bouncing $BDI.

Note that in 2015 BDI was making a break for it in heading north. The following charts will mirror image the $BDI… http://tinyurl.com/grfxw8j…http://tinyurl.com/z5om7mj

Now let’s see if your stocks are following the same pattern in lossing money.

CBM…http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CBM&p=D&yr=2&mn…

LGIH…http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LGIH&p=D&yr=2&m…

SWKS…http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SWKS&p=D&yr=2&m…

SKX…http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SKX&p=D&yr=2&mn…

INBK…http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=INBK&p=D&yr=2&m…

INFN…http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=INFN&p=D&yr=2&m…

SEDG…http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SEDG&p=D&yr=2&m…

SNCR…http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SNCR&p=D&yr=2&m…

CASY…http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CASY&p=D&yr=2&m…

AMZN…http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AMZN&p=D&yr=2&m…

CELG…http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CELG&p=D&yr=2&m…

AMBA…http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AMBA&p=D&yr=2&m…

PN…http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PN&p=D&yr=2&mn=…

SBNY…http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SBNY&p=D&yr=2&m…

MITK…http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MITK&p=D&yr=2&m…

REXR…http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=REXR&p=D&yr=0&m…

O…http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=O&p=D&yr=0&mn=1… nice divvie checks every month and up over 40% in profits.

JAFO.

5 Likes

In general, they suck. Most are below key moving averages, most are down in strong volume. What else…

When I see suck and crap in the same post…I know there is going to be trouble :slight_smile:

The problem with your post is that you have commented on the retrospective as the charts demonstrate quite well…but what does this all mean about their future??

How do these charts change your approach today?

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So why don’t I go to another board to post this crap? Because you guys are my family now and I love you, so why would I go somewhere else?

I guess from now on, we’ll just have to refer to you as our drunken but lovable uncle Pete. :slight_smile:

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How do these charts change your approach today?

The charts say that you should resist the temptation to buy more of your beaten down stocks at this point, as you are very likely to get a cheaper entry point in the near future.

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So why don’t I go to another board to post this crap?

Are you kidding? Looks at how many recs you got!

The charts say that you should resist the temptation to buy more of your beaten down stocks at this point, as you are very likely to get a cheaper entry point in the near future.

OT: This is an interesting science or art…chart reading that is. I have the same gut feeling without looking at a chart so it is nice to have the confirmation bias I guess. I have bought very little on this “way down” and am extremely excited about the opportunity to buy more at better prices. It will be interesting to see how I ultimately react.

The funny thing about charts is, much like picking a particular time horizon for investing returns, the nature of picking a time horizon is exactly what causes variability in predicting outcomes. If you know the trajectory of a stock over the past two months, does that predict the next two months? Or does it predict the next year? How do you take into account what took place in the market during the timeframe you are analyzing? I don’t mean to be harsh, I just don’t quite get it. I’ve probably already overstepped my bounds on this OT subject.

In physics, Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle tells us the more precise we are on one measurement, the less we know about the other. When detecting a light wave, the more we know about its position, the less we know about its momentum (or future course).

I see this as it relates to charts, we have a wonderful understanding of what has happened over a particular period of time for a particular equity, but the more we know that, the less we understand about the future.

Take care,
A.J.

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I have bought very little on this “way down” and am extremely excited about the opportunity to buy more at better prices. It will be interesting to see how I ultimately react.

Hi AJ, the big problem, the very big problem, is that at the bottom it ALWAYS feels as if it’s going to get worse. By definition, it’s at the bottom because everyone thinks it’s going to get worse and they are selling. That’s what is driving the price down. And when it starts up it looks like a sucker rise.

That makes it very difficult.

Saul

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Hi AJ, the big problem, the very big problem, is that at the bottom it ALWAYS feels as if it’s going to get worse. By definition, it’s at the bottom because everyone thinks it’s going to get worse and they are selling. That’s what is driving the price down. And when it starts up it looks like a sucker rise.

There is no doubt you are correct, and I’ not going to give specific OPINIONS regarding my feelings on the market today. Let’s just say it is completely a gut feeling.

My idea is a bit more personal I think. I looked at the history of the market and wanted to be able to invest in a down market. Having started in 2012, this wasn’t possible. Now, I have that chance. I don’t know how well I will do, but I have opportunities.

Also, I have a bit of a different outlook. I like it when stocks go down because I have a relatively long horizon. I want to be able to put cash to use in a down market.

Regards,
A.J.

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In physics, Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle tells us the more precise we are on one measurement, the less we know about the other.

It is not the Heisenberg Principle that is at play here but stochastic independence of events. When you toss a coin 500 times, what you got before has nothing to do with the outcome of the next</> coin toss. Those are independent events. Not so with the movements of stocks. How a stock behaved in the last 10 weeks exerts influence on what it will do this week. Those are not independent events. The exact mathematical model for it is very elusive. So elusive, in fact, that many people find it more comforting to deny its existence.

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Pete,
Thank you for posting
Sometimes a picture/Chart says more than a 1000 words
:slight_smile:
Erik

My brother has been studying charts for 3-4 years. I’ve been trying to get him into investing but no luck after two years. He is a firm believer (worshiper) that price/volume actions in the past would dictate the next move. He believes charts can even predicts the news of that ticker tomorrow (companies are simply tickers to him).

I’ve given up on persuading him after many failures but he seems to be happy with his results so far. He cannot get around with buying/shorting any “ticker” without checking the chart and he would not stick so any position for anything longer than maybe a couple weeks. In and out quickly for 10-15% gain for each position. I keep telling myself that as long as he’s doing fine, why do I have to care what methodology he’s using.

just venting… sorry

nomb

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