OT: Dividends20 - Upstart


Are you still bullish on Upstart? Still holding on to your $2000 price target?


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Yes, I plan to accumulate more tomorrow.

Revenue: $310M, up 156% Y|Y
Net Income: $32.7M, up 224% Y|Y
Income from Operations: $34.8M, up 124% Y|Y
Contribution Profit: $147.8M, up 165% Y|Y, and representing 47% of fee revenue
Adjusted EBITDA: $62.6M, or 20% of revenue, up 288 bps Y|Y

I am looking at the business with a 10 year horizon and the business is doing well.
Banks and credit unions joining 1/wk for Personal loans.
They just got into auto loans which is ramping up nicely and will soon enter business lending and then mortgage.
Total $6T+ loan origination TAM

Be greedy when…


General comment: one day, one month or even one year’s price change has nothing to do with what price will be in ten years.

However, Upstart’s technology of using AI to approve loans is too new and unproven. Even if such technologies will be widely adopted in the future, it will face stiff competitions from big tech such as Google, Microsoft that have big AI and big data in house.

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Upstart- what do they do?


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Yes, I plan to accumulate more tomorrow

Then you do not understand Saul’s investment process and miss an important part of why he could have been so successful with it. Have a look at the current Upstart discussion over there and the reasoning of the two diametrically opposed groups:

A) People getting out:
- QoQ grew 1.6% … for Q2 the QoQ growth outlook is -1.6% … that’s not hypergrowth anymore … downward revision of the FY22 outlook from $1.4B to $1.25B. That’s pretty much stalled growth for the next three quarters
- with the guidance of a full year of flat revenue QoQ, it’s a clear-cut case that UPST no longer warrants discussion on this board

B) People holding on*:
- Quoting the Earnings Call: “Guidance is flat, and they explained it in the ER.”
- But the fundamental story has not yet changed
- Look, this is not a DDOG. The path forward will be bumpy, and UPST might not make it. That’s just how it is. That’s investing. But for me, I’m willing to take the risk (especially at these prices**

You really think Saul would be impressed by Upstart explaining why their numbers are awful?

You don’t think he would sell the moment he sees those numbers, no matter how low the price and how big his losses?

*Group A does not say “I buy”, only that they are holding on, in other words: They rationalize. They can’t stand emotionally to realize their extreme losses - contrary to Saul, who does not cheat himself.

**Right. Has fallen a lot, so it must be cheap now :slight_smile:


Then you do not understand Saul’s investment process

I don’t care for Saul or anyone else’s opinion.
I have my own convictions and accumulating more today and averaging down (my first small buy was at $246).
In 10 years no one will care about this drop.

  • I feel like a mosquito in a nudist colony

my first small buy was at $246
You missed the top.

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