your top 5 (and mine btw) include Apple. Hard to imagine Apple not taking a massive hit with an invasion.
I like Apple, but as an investment, I would prefer Google, Microsoft and Facebook. Since invested in Berkshire is a big investment, I end up getting Apple despite thinking it is overpriced right now, in addition to stagnant sales and serious existential threats, including (but not limited to) war in Taiwan.
I think that at this point, if you think there will be no war over Taiwan, you’ve got some explaining to do. China has basically said that Taiwan is there’s, that Taiwan has no right to exist independently, and that it would go to war to get Taiwan if Taiwan doesn’t voluntarily become part of China. And you have Taiwan that doesn’t want to become part of China. Although my sympathies are entirely with Taiwan, I can’t see how you can realistically expect that war can be avoided.
If and when it comes to war, almost any business in China will be damaged, including Apple, so I agree that that would be a massive hit. But businesses that are actually in Taiwan, like TSM, will be hit even harder. Who is doing worse right now, businesses in Russia, or businesses in Ukraine? So I think a small investment in Apple, via Berkshire, is a lot less risky than a top-5 investment in TSM.
dtb