Whether he overpaid or not will be clear in hindsight, not now.
I evaluated SolarCity quite a while ago and it is my opinion that it is a terrible investment. Anything Elon Musk pays for SolarCity is wasted money, IMO. I don’t need to wait for confirmation. Now, should I be wrong, and it has happened, then all I lose is an opportunity but I don’t lose capital.
24.1% average yearly growth over a period of 30 years. They must be doing something right.
How do you come up with this?
I read the numbers off the chart:
BMW METHOD SCREEN, 30-year history ending 09/2016:
* Using MIN RETURN FACTOR threshold of 2.000x
* Using MIN RMS BELOW AVE CAGR LINE threshold of 2.000
AVE CUR RETURN 6-MO
TICKER CAGR CAGR FACTOR RMS PRICE CHG
BCPC 24.1% 23.3% 1.20 -0.57 70.02 12% Balchem Corporation
I think that number is more like 18% including dividend reinvestment since 1986.
24.1% is the slope of the red line, it’s a calculated best fit curve. You probably are getting the 18% because you are using actual starting and ending prices.
I wish you could share more about the unique opportunities you see with the company. I would appreciate it.
I read the SEC filings and I didn’t like what I saw. I can’t recommend this company or this stock.
Also, bear in mind that AMZN grew more than 100 times in price over last 18 years or so. Law of law numbers will prevent AMZN or for that matter BLCM from repeating that performance.
This is a terrible argument, not because it’s not true, but because it makes you waste opportunities.
I watched a very interesting interview with Jeff Bezos where he talks about Amazon’s strategies and business model. If I had to rank the various brilliant businessmen of the Internet Age, Bezos would head the list, certainly the most successful retailer since Sam Walton. Consider that Amazon’s start is US centric with some 300 million inhabitants. Now he is tackling the two most populous countries in the world. China’s economy will soon overtake America. While I had my doubts about India on account of their over populist policies, it seems they have finally seen the errors of their ways. A freer democratic economy should be more efficient than the planned economy the Communist Party runs in China.
Not all companies grow the same way. Retail has the peculiarity of drawing “S” curve price charts. Roughly speaking their lifetime is divided into three equal parts: a slow start taking up about a third, then the company ramps into high growth painting the curve in the hockey stick, the bottom of the “S” curve. As the business reaches around 80% market penetration growth slows painting the top of the “S” curve at around the second third. Then the company plateaus and it can remain a cash cow for quite some time. This is where WalMart is now.
So, yes, growth will slow, but there are many good years ahead before Amazon reaches 80% worldwide market penetration.