OT:Market Confirmed Uptrend

Investment Analysis Clubs Saul’s Investing Discussions
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IBD declared this a follow through day, resulting in an “confirmed uptrend”.

The stock market rallied Tuesday after China and the U.S. stepped away from the brink of a trade war, causing a bullish shift in the market’s outlook.

The Nasdaq surged 2.1% and the S&P 500 1.7%. Volume rose from Monday’s levels. Big gains in higher volume marked a follow-through day for stocks, a confirmation of a rally attempt that began a week ago. The small-cap Russell 2000 jumped 1.9%.

A follow-through is a bottoming signal, which means IBD’s market outlook has changed to confirmed uptrend. It ends a market correction that IBD signaled on March 27, although the indexes peaked March 13. Investors should regard Tuesday’s signal as a time to start getting back into stocks, specifically fundamentally sound companies that are in proper buy areas.

Even with a bullish signal at their back, investors need to be cautious as they increase exposure. While the indexes more than satisfied the technical requirements for a follow-through, the market remains volatile and sensitive to headlines.

This is the most worrisome rally in a while, which means it might be the best while climbing that wall of worry.
P.

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This is about how I feel. I bought NKTR back yesterday. I am thinking of adding a couple more today. Maybe NVDA, AMAZON, or OKTA.

OKTA gave up nothing in this last swoon.

Nothing I tell ya! Nothing!

Kinda irritates me as I was hoping to grab a few cheep shares.

Cheers
Qazulight

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This is the most worrisome rally in a while, which means it might be the best while climbing that wall of worry.

Just wait for the rockets to strike Syria.

🆁🅶🅱

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OT
Just wait for the rockets to strike Syria. doesn’t everybody already know that will happen?

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Stocks pulled back a bit today, but in lower volume…

When stocks pull back right after a follow-through, lower volume is ideal for market bulls. It suggests that the bears are still hibernating, while other fund managers are less eager to sell into the current rally
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Bullishness, no surprise, has been steadily declining. On Wednesday, the bulls-bears ratio from Investors Intelligence showed a sharp drop in bullishness, now at 42.2%. It’s the third straight week of a sub-50% reading.

That’s actually good for equities. If everyone is wildly optimistic, the market would lack a set of new buyers to keep the uptrend alive.
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Another positive factor that should not be ignored: The Q1 earnings outlook looks pretty good.
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Within the IBD 50 alone, as many as 27 firms are forecast to deliver a first-quarter earnings increase of 40% or more.

They include Brazilian digital payments expert PagSeguro Digital (PAGS) (EPS estimate of 18 cents, up 200%)
…

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IBD is outstanding at predicting what happened in the past.
DHeavy

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IBD is outstanding at predicting what happened in the past.

It’s like playing blackjack, if you count cards, you change the odds in your favor. The cards that went by are in the past :wink:

Also, following CANSLIM/IBD rules, you were in cash before the 2007-08 crash went very far and they called a market follow through day on March 11, 2009.

Nevertheless, you should follow Saul, he kicks IBD’s butt, Rule Breaker’s butt, S&P butt, your butt, etc.

now, if you want to argue the rules are hard to follow becase we fall prey to our human weaknesses, then you are 100% right. But that is true for any active investing style. (Part of Saul’s success is avoiding fear and greed, triminig some large holdings to buy favorties that are down or to try new ones.)

If you just use IBD to find stocks that have great growth fundamentals as a starting point for stocks that work on this board, then it is a great place. Try the open-to-the-public “The New America” column, you might find some good stuff. That is how I brought LGIH to this board, which Tom Gardner picked up after this board added tons of value with research and commentary. Then Tom gave use APPN and VRNS while thanking us for LGIH. So mabye if you did a little research you would be a little less cynical and a little more open to new sources of data.

Go check out some New America articles here:
https://www.investors.com/category/research/the-new-america/…
Recent ones Axon, Five Below, Trex, Veeva, PagSeguro, Shopify, Atlassian,INXN.

Happy Hunting.

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4/17/18:
The Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 all climbed above their 50-day moving averages. That cleared a barrier in the market’s week-old uptrend as the Nasdaq works toward prior highs logged in March.

Nice to see strength, especially if you bought in the dip.

The stock market behaved virtually the way you would like it to when we’re just days removed from the confirmation of a new uptrend in play. Good earnings drove the advance. Key indexes rose sharply. Volume expanded. Leading stocks outpaced the market’s advance.
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Even though the key indexes show some disparity in year-to-date gains, the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and even the Dow Jones industrial average all hurdled back above the 50-day moving average. That’s bullish. So was the strong market breadth in favor of advancing stocks over losers (nearly 3-to-1 on the NYSE and more than 2-to-1 on the Nasdaq)

It seems earnings may be trumping politics for now.

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The only uptrend confirmed in the market is the one that ended yesterday. It will last until it doesn’t.
Everything else is guesswork. Though statistical probabilities do apply.

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