Been a while since I posted, partially due to business, partially due to faily steady market. It has been in an “under pressure” IBD standing with 5 distirubtion days on the books for Naz and S&P for a while. IBD considers today’s blast off as enough to call “confirmed uptrend”. Technically it is “Uptrend Resumes” since we are not coming out of a correction. The distribution days stay on the books, unlike when entering a confirmed uptrend out of a correction state.
As nice as the percentage move was, the volume does not look much higher then yesterday or recent days.
The market is just happy a political poll (France) got it right for once
The Dow Jones industrial average and S&P 500 gapped above their 50-day moving averages Monday and the Nasdaq scored an all-time closing high — good enough to put the market back in a confirmed uptrend. … A bad day for the stock market on March 21, when the Nasdaq plunged 1.8% in higher volume, put the market uptrend under pressure. But the Nasdaq was able to hold above its 50-day moving average, never moving far off its all-time high. With the market back in a confirmed uptrend, it’s OK to put some money to work, but be disciplined if a trade doesn’t go as planned. Avoid low-volume breakouts and make sure that buy candidates have a bullish relative strength line, at or near new highs along with the stock. …
What does this mean for this board? As usual, not much. We are looking for longer term investments on good growth stocks. But for those who have been holding cash for a correction, maybe you become a little less nervous and buy that Saul stock you wanted. Or maybe you trend towards a little more of the riskier gems this board is mulling over.
For those that trade around core positions, maybe keep holding your short-term positions longer. Financials did well, some steel, chips are doing well.
I think you guys talk about Square SQ here. It is in a flat base with a buy point of $18.27 (if you get high volume). But it has relatively weak growth fundamentals. Reports 5/3/2017.
most stringent and powerful screen, Sector Leaders highlight the best stocks in the 33 sectors. All Sector Leaders show outstanding earnings and sales growth in recent quarters and are strong across many other fundamental and price-performance metrics.
SBCF: Annual earnings are expected to grow 24% in 2017 and 22% in 2018. These estimates recently have been revised higher by analysts. Note the stock’s RS line, which is nudging into new-high territory today. It began to make a comeback as the rest of the financials were rolling to the downside toward the end of March. These types of divergences are key to identifying leadership within the market.
Expectations are high for the Florida bank, which will report its Q1 earnings after the close on Tuesday. Analysts estimate its quarterly earnings will grow 42% to 27 cents a share on revenue totaling $48.1 million, an 18% increase year over year.
The market is so unpredictable! Toward the end of March I was not liking the feel of the market and there were three stocks that I wanted to buy when the time was ripe so I raised some cash. Last Monday I sold LKQ which was not acting right and I bought BEAT instead (not one of the three, a new arrival). Today I bought SRCL which I had been watching for a breakout. Several analysts have recently upgraded the stock:
the market is just happy a political poll (France) got it right for once
Yet the US market was (and is up) presumably on the election of somebody who mostly disagrees with Macron.
Macron got less than 1/4 of the votes cast meaning 3/4 of French voters preferred someone else.
Hopefully this isn’t considered political since it is all historical but the French don’t have a great past record of choosing politicians, stating with French Kings ,leading through the Revolution blood bath, Napoleon, Franco Prussian war, Petain, etc. True some of these were forced on them but in the end that usually comes down to the votes before the force…
French GDP growth is almost nil, less than 2% since the 60’s and down to less than 0.4 % in recent years . And one can only wonder how much of that has been “fudged”. Almost certainly it would be negative without tourism, nice in itself but not something to build the future on.
I am not sure France can survive another generation of “getting it right”
And I am a Francophile, I love the country and like the people. Once the richest country in the world.
I hope the best for them especially since having an alternative ,the French Way , is always worth while,it’s a chance to see what system works best in the real world .Rather than in the world of political rhetoric
Current polling of the Macron - Le Pen matchup has Le Pen 26 points down. Unless there is an astronomical polling error or these numbers change, it isn’t even close … and the French polls were exceptionally accurate in the results of the first round.
yeah, there have never been any astronomical polling errors that i can remember in at least the last 168 days…
brian
Can you give an example? Don’t give Trump victory as astronomical because 538 called Trump could win electoral college and lose popular vote. BTW, if you are one of those political type, I hope you remember when Megan Kelly showed her beautiful legs while Karl Rove had a melt-down in live TV should count as astronomical.
Why are you people arguing over polling? Polling is not the election.
I believe the election is in June. Argue over the real results.
Btw I am in the district in Georgia where Democrats thought they could win because Hillary actually won the district. Compared to Republicans usually winning by 10 to 30 points.
So hey, the district has changed!?!
Not so fast. Is a matter of interpretation. Conservative voters did not vote for trump or Hillary. Trump was not a conservative. Thus he didn’t get votes.
So one can argue polling et al all you want. But why? The real election is less than two months away. Let’s fight over something else that matters.
Not so fast. Is a matter of interpretation. Conservative voters did not vote for trump or Hillary. Trump was not a conservative. Thus he didn’t get votes.
That is interesting Tinker. If Trump isn’t a conservative how would you designate him? Especially when he is the leader of the Conservative party.
Okay guys, an OT thread on Market Trends is quickly evolving into a political discussion (Trump/Democrats/Republicans…), which fortunately hasn’t yet got overtly hostile. Let’s stop the thread now before board members get angry and pissed at each other. Not what this board is about. Let’s keep it about stocks which is what it’s good at. Thanks for your cooperation!
Saul
What are you regarding as an astronomical polling error in recent history?
Saul asked we stop talking about this. That type of question is inevitably going to provide a chorus of replies which would do no good for this board. I have my own ideas. Email me personally if you’d like them.
