OT:So they are not all thinking alike over there

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NOW is “only” growing revenues at 30%+ per year and this trading at only 18x sales…I took a look at NOW and, which it has been growing at an impressive 30%+ clip over the last five years, with significant margin expansion, it would have to continue to grow at this rate for 10 years to justify its current price.

This thread and the slaughter in pricing among Saul stocks has piqued my interest and I’ve been reading the board daily and doing a little bit of research myself. The most interesting to me of his current roster of stocks is Upstart, as it’s still been showing hypergrowth but actually is profitable (trailing PE of ~115) and has a ‘low’ P/S of ‘only’ 15.

I’m going to keep reading and researching. Not comfortable pulling the trigger on anything at this point, but maybe down the road, maybe not.

Having lived through the tech crash in 2000, I’m well aware that companies with great and rapidly growing businesses can still have stock prices crater worse than some would imagine. Saul stocks have dropped ~40% on average since November? That could happen again, and again, and again, and AGAIN before they find bottom if the slaughter after 2000 is anything to go by. As Naj pointed out over at Sauls recently, Amazon went from 113 down to 5.5 from Dec. 1999 to Oct 2001, even while Amazon was executing their business expansion remarkably well during that time period.

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hey the topic came up and I responded. They had a great run good for them. I have my own portfolio, and my own goals. For me, buying Berkshire on $300 break out and enjoying that $20 run is far more satisfying than many things. I am singles, and doubles guy.

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A good bear indicator that Brkies are interested in hyper growth stocks? (Sauls board), lets party likes its 1999.

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In msg. 269152 BenSolar said “Saul stocks have dropped ~40% on average since November? That could happen again, and again, and again, and AGAIN before they find bottom”

If the above happens let us know. That will be the time to invest in Saul Stocks.

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Even then they will be overvalued in traditional valuation metrics. I am raising about 20% cash, and waiting. My expectation is mostly around May (summer) the bottoming process may complete and setup for the next leg.

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Either way it’s to be doubted rmtzp’s “Lessons” will work in the future as they are based on a faulty explanation, on wrong assumptions.

Hi Said2 (et. al.),

I’m not familiar with this board, but since I was mentioned, I wanted to have the opportunity to respond.

As far as I remember NOBODY on that board with SO MANY highly intelligent and SO DEEPLY analyzing members did see those “red flags” then. After Q1 and Q2 numbers Crowdstrike was their highest conviction company (I thought about buying it). rmtzp knows that of course: “At this point, the market stopped agreeing with the level of conviction seen on this board.”

I actually found plenty of posts from those intelligent people that deeply analyze the numbers and narrative. This is one of the main takeaways from my post - these are even cited on my original post! Some of my favorites were:

XavierH on the spike in operating cost as a percentage of revenue, and drop in EPS: https://discussion.fool.com/i-am-not-a-native-speaker-and-i-hope…

wsm007’s on RPO issues and management deflecting questions: https://discussion.fool.com/retrospective-lessons-from-crowdstri…

Stocknovice on the drop in ARR: https://discussion.fool.com/stocknovice39s-august-portfolio-revi…

Did the market recognize from those public numbers a slowdown which the collected Intelligence of that super-analyzing board could not see? Very unlikely.

The market absolutely recognized the slowdown, and this was referenced in my point as well. I compared Crowdstrike’s results with a basket of high-growht SaaS, and found the following:

After Q1: The market reaction from their results seemed to follow the “good but not great” sentiment. Between their respective Q1s and Q2s, the average share price increase from high-growth SaaS increased 51%, while Crowdstrike’s share price rose 30%.

After Q2: At this point, the market stopped agreeing with the level of conviction seen on this board. Between Q2 and Q3, Crowdstrike’s share price decreased -29%, while the high-growth SaaS basked increased +23% (that’s a difference of 52%!).

So either that retrospective explanation about “red flags … slowdown” is wrong, rationalization only — or the board did not WANT to see it.

I definitely see how my post could be interpreted as “hindsight is 20/20” as I indicate on the post, but I don’t think I’m basing my points on wrong explanations and self-rationalizations. I spent hours trying to evaluate information to identify lessons for the future, and I feel happy knowing that I am taking away several. Regardless of our investing methodology differences, hopefully my post helps you (and others) take some lessons for their future investing journey as well! Isn’t that what this is all about?

Respectfully,
RMTZP

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In msg. 269152 BenSolar said “Saul stocks have dropped ~40% on average since November? That could happen again, and again, and again, and AGAIN before they find bottom”

If the above happens let us know. That will be the time to invest in Saul Stocks.

UPST is in between the 2cnd and 3rd 40% drop from its high of $390 back in November, currently trading at $109.5

1 Like