Each of you needs to make your own decisions, but a little information might help.
These guys trying to scare you and spread panic, and are gloating at the decline because they are jealous that they don’t have our gains, come out every time our stocks take a hit. Looking back at posts in November towards mid-December might be an eye opener.
At mid-day today, even with all this panic selling, my portfolio is up 41.6% year to date.
And since Jan 1 of last year, it’s up 142.7%.
And since Jan 1 of the year before (2017) it’s up 347.1% (That’s 447.1% of where it started with, a quadruple and a half !!!)
Where are their portfolios, those guys who are gloating at our misfortune, and think they are geniuses who can time the market?
When Bob Dylan was once getting eviscerated by critics, he said,
These people probably don’t like to eat what I like to eat, they probably don’t like the same things I like, or the same people. Look, just one time I’d like to see any one of these (expletive) try and do what I do. Just once let one of them write a song to show how they feel and sing it in front of ten, let alone 10,000 or 100,000 people. I’d like to see them just try that one time.
These guys trying to scare you and spread panic, and are gloating at the decline because they are jealous that they don’t have our gains, come out every time our stocks take a hit. Looking back at posts in November towards mid-December might be an eye opener.
Where are their portfolios, those guys who are gloating at our misfortune, and think they are geniuses who can time the market?
How is 41.6% YTD misfortune?
You refer to all these guys and this gloating…i went back and reviewed all the posts from today and i’m not seeing it outside of the “naked” thing - and who cares anyway?
I suspect most of us board readers are curious as to your approach to this…are you holding? trimming and re-deploying (you’re usually 100% invested IIRC)?
myself, i added a bit today to ZS, CRWD, SFIX and FSLY.
Congrats on your past performance.
But past stock action is not guaranteeing the same or even future positive performance.
In fact, these stocks could go down 75% and still not be cheap.
My concern is not with you (you are 400% up so even with 75% down you still will be OK) but with people that joined your movement just recently (like since the beginning of the year).
As a value investor, I wouldn’t sleep well holding these even for 10 minutes.
However, I wish you and the rest of the board good luck whatever you decide.
These guys trying to scare you and spread panic, and are gloating at the decline because they are jealous that they don’t have our gains, come out every time our stocks take a hit. Looking back at posts in November towards mid-December might be an eye opener.
At mid-day today, even with all this panic selling, my portfolio is up 41.6% year to date.
I am still up 65% YTD, so I don’t think I fall into the jealous category, or troll category that Bear just used. Certainly not gloating, as I am feeling today’s pain, too. I have been posting aloud concerns about valuations and possibly unrealistic assumptions that multiples can just keep expanding.
I get that market timing is OT here, and so it technical trading.
But why is it off-topic to wonder if these companies, great as they (and their metrics) are, are also good stock investments at current prices? Shouldn’t the goal be maximizing our CAGR?
Otherwise this is just a growth-stock-discovery/information board and not an investment board, imo.
Couldn’t imagine going over to a value board on one of many huge up days or when I was up 89.5% YTD in July and shaking my finger at people about how dumb they are for their strategy.
You be you and I’ll be me. Up 54% YTD now today. So I’m not swimming in misery over here.
I’ll keep regularly buying in the best companies that are doing amazing things for other businesses and people. Selling when the story breaks or gets out of hand or something else looks better.
Dave Gardner often speaks of his biggest losses. The companies he sold too soon or never bought. His point is you stand to lose a lot more by not investing in the right companies ($infinity) than you could ever lose in investing in it(100%).
I’m not shuksan, but I know why I’m (me, ralph) here.
Saul’s explanations of investing concepts help me cut through some of the merde that passes for information.
I’ve read about, studied, followed, etc various stock investing experts for 25 years.
I’ve picked up “tips” … But often those “tips” were more “do this”, with little or no explanation. And, therefore became a “box” that limited my thinking.
Saul doesn’t really offer “tips”. He says "here is what I am doing/thinking RIGHT NOW, and WHY. He shows me what he sees in the ERs and other writings, and helps me better understand how HE thinks about investing concepts.
He is TRANSPARENT about RIGHT NOW.
Others on the board are, following Saul’s lead, also being more transparent.
I’m here so that I can perhaps learn to think a little differently about and better sift through the tsunami of information that inundates today’s individual investor.
Here’s an example of my changed thinking:
Saul says (paraphrasing) “don’t anchor to a price. Once you decide to buy or sell, then buy or sell at market price.” There’s more to that concept - go read the Knowledge Base.
ralph
To read the Knowledge Base on a smartphone, open a post, then scroll down, below the post to the Announcements window.
Analyst see this as a rotation to safety and a buying opportunity Re: TWLO
D.A. Davidson analyst Rishi Jaluria told Benzinga that profit taking and rotation can create buying opportunities for long-term investors.
“I would note most of the names getting hit are high multiple names that have had impressive run ups,” Juria said. He said Twilio looks particularly appealing.
Great companies that should not be any surprise what so ever that now and then they too correct.
Never know when it’s going to happen, and looking at it longer term as an opportunity to buy shares cheaper, that’s what you should be focused on.
If you believe in ZS for example, then buy more shares on days like today and be ready to buy more shares if a sell off continues, as long as the story is intact.
Very surprised to see so many of my limit orders hit today that I placed over a month ago.
I don’t care where AYX, TTD, MDB, ZS, ESTC, OKTA are trading today, I care where it will be trading in a few years from now. In the meantime I’ll keep setting limit orders in at lower levels just like I did all last fall and into end of Dec.
Patience and the great analysis on this board is a very successful strategy.
As I looked at the stocks in my “follow” list, I see that the high PE fast growers are taking huge hits on heavy volume, while the big battleship stocks are pretty stable. Fool or no fool, it is the fast growers like TTD getting hammered, while the tubs aren’t feeling any pain. Is there something common between the fast growers that someone with a lot of money is thinking about?
I found this discussion board some months ago, after discovering that different folks on this board held many of the same companies in their portfolio as I held in mine, and for much of the same reasons.
Today was unbelievably painful for me, and perhaps tomorrow will be too, but it’s been good for me to see that most, not all, but most on this discussion board have stayed calm and focused on the road ahead. That calmness has helped very much today. Thank you all for that.
I did nothing today, and will probably look to add to some of my positions.
I look forward to following this board for years to come and will get to work reading through all of the investment philosophy discussions and board rules posted here by Saul and others. Hopefully, at some point, I can begin to contribute as well.
I may be wrong on this, but I think Saul’s initial post on this thread is also OT and not following the rules. As well, you are known to post OT posts and label them as OT.
May I suggest as others have suggested that for the bulk of the rules violations that you and other assistants see, perhaps you can reply via email to the poster and that will eliminate many needless posts that you all post.
This is respectfully said and I’m not trying to be rude or anything.
Each of you needs to make your own decisions, but a little information might help.
Yesterday I replied to “Good luck with Mongo” with “IRR 102.6% and it’s not luck.”
After today’s debacle Mongo’s IRR is down to 91.6%. Imagine how well off I would be had I instead bought a nice safe value stock. IRR 12%?
You guys know I like charts. The S&P 500 is supposed to represent the broad market while NASDAQ is referred to as “tech heavy.” I noticed a long time ago how they diverge.
Clearly one is better off in the long run with growth than with value but it’s not risk free. If you get in at a top followed by a huge downdraft you are in for major pain. That is the risk that one must know how to handle. I did not learn that lesson until the dot-com bubble blew up. Here is the secret: “Good companies bounce back, bankrupt ones don’t.” I suffered major losses because several of my holdings went bankrupt. An important lesson was the difference between a sturdy portfolio vs. an efficient one. Bankruptcy is caused by the inability to pay one’s bills. Lack of cash flow, excessive debt, and credit risk (lenders) are three principal causes. Notice there was no mention of earnings! As long as you pay your bills you cannot go broke. This is one reason why high P/Es are not that much of a problem. More important is the business model, the cash flow. For example, I switched from bear to bull on Mongo based on Atlas. Before Atlas Mondo depended on Freemium which, IMO, is risky while fast growth SaaS is much safer. Same database, same developers, same clients, same market, DIFFERENT BUSINESS MODEL!
Don’t worry too much about valuation. Ask “Is this business bullet proof?” Can it bounce back or is it more likely to go bust?
I have learned a lot from this board, and Saul’s knowledge bases. The biggest thing was probably about getting into a stock, if it is good, even if I pay a few more dollars for it. I used to set my limit orders 1/2% above the current price, and not buy them if the price jumped. Now my limit orders are set a lot higher than ½%. I also understand the companies, and the metrics that are used.
I just wanted to say that while I know that many topics are not allowed, I think negative comments about the SAAS stocks should be allowed. If they are not allowed, we will all suffer from group think, and confirmation bias.
Also, I try my best not to post on this board, because I don’t have the time to do the type of analysis that is looked for on the stocks here.
Each of you needs to make your own decisions, but a little information might help.
These guys trying to scare you and spread panic, and are gloating at the decline because they are jealous that they don’t have our gains, come out every time our stocks take a hit. Looking back at posts in November towards mid-December might be an eye opener.
The other thing the pundits often ignore is that risk and volatility are two entirely separate things.
Risk, as defined by Warren Buffett, is the chance of a permanent loss of capital.
Volatility on the other hand is the variability of prices, whether it is day-to-day, week-to-week, month-to-month, or whatever.
The companies that have been giving us such great gains and have been growing 60% Y-O-Y are not going out of business tomorrow. With customers liking their products as much as they apparently do, there is no way that would happen. However the shares tend to be volatile.
It’s great for you guys who got to the SaaS party two years ago, but for many of us, like me, do not have that kind of luxury, because we joined LATE.
As an MIer, backtests show that many fast growers tank. It’s only in hindsight that it’s understood why,sometimes. I lost a ton of money with ABMD, and to this day, I still cannot understand why. It had YOY revenue growth of 34,40,36,37% (as of Jan 2019 when I bought it) and had the world’s tiniest heart pump. It had gone up for about four years prior, but IBD did say that it was LATE in the game, despite what the numbers and the TAM say. It proceeded to crash from about 420 down to 280 (when I sold) and has continued to fall to under 200.
I’m asking on behalf of all the late-comers here: are we late to the game??? (If you feel it is OT, please share off board.)
The other thing the pundits often ignore is that risk and volatility are two entirely separate things.
I am not sure which pundit you are talking about. I think people get risk and volatility are different.
However, the typical volatility seen in high growth names are different than what is seen today. For ex: AYX, today’s volume of 5M is the second highest volume the stock has ever seen. The stock had sustained selling and the price tried to stage a minor recovery and was beaten back to $120 level. The sellers are motivated today.
Considering there is no earnings or other catalyst, a 15% move down on a strong volume make one wonder whether this is just a normal volatility or something like an inflection point.
Quoting Buffett on these names is a travesty. Can you imagine in any scenario where Buffett could be owning these names? Advocating what he is talking for his ironclad value stocks are not relevant for these high-growers.
I am not going to react to today’s move, but actively considering buying some protection.
