OT - Some potential good news

If this virus reduces in the heat/humidity of summer, as it seems to,

I don’t see any reason to believe that virus spread will be much lower in the summer.
It’s spreading in the Philippines and Malaysia, after all, two very hot countries.

1 Like

I just heard a viriologist on the radio opine that summer decreases in flu Are probably attributable to herd immunity. A significant portion of the population is immunized, and a high percentage of the remaining get the flu. By summer, most of the herd is immune and there are not enough susceptible people to sustain its spread. He said according to the numbers we are seeing in the southern hemisphere, heat will have little of any impact. All we have to do is look at growth rates in Southern Florida and California.

Sooooo, what will be the public’s stomach for risk when the infected rates reach more than a million?

Gordon

I just heard a viriologist on the radio opine that summer decreases in flu Are probably attributable to herd immunity. A significant portion of the population is immunized, and a high percentage of the remaining get the flu. By summer, most of the herd is immune and there are not enough susceptible people to sustain its spread. He said according to the numbers we are seeing in the southern hemisphere, heat will have little of any impact. All we have to do is look at growth rates in Southern Florida and California.

It doesn’t make sense that the population’s herd immunity would come in seasonal cycles. People don’t get flu shots during the summer yet that is not flu season. People get flu shots during the winter yet that’s when people get flu, during “flu season.” And every year it’s a different flu so that’s why everyone gets a different flu shot, so if a new strain of flu virus broke out during the summer all these people who have no flu shot would not be immune to it. So we should be getting flu just as much during the summer according to this expert.

I can tell you, living in Phoenix all my life, flu season is still during the winter months. Just as we have Coronavirus cases just like the rest of Southern USA. Just as we get colds in winter, which has no vaccine. Phoenix is a very dry, hot climate but still colder than most of USA’s summer months during the winter (like 50s for the high or the high today as I write this is 70. A big difference from long sunny days reaching 116 where even as a human you don’t want to be in the summer too long without water).

So the fact that cold season is also during the winter months, there’s no cold vaccine, kinda goes against what this virologist is saying.

I fully expect this Coronavirus to be gone by end of May. The only concern is it coming back in Winter.

I suspect that there are plenty of virologists who would disagree with this expert they found for the radio.

4 Likes

I’m with you Dave. A few studies have now confirmed less transmission in hotter and more humid conditions. That should help some. However, we are seeing a nice response to hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin combo in critical patients at our hospitals. I’m hearing NYC is seeing similar responsiveness. If that plays out, this thing could be dealt with rather quickly. Let’s hope so.

MC

20 Likes

However, we are seeing a nice response to hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin combo in critical patients at our hospitals. I’m hearing NYC is seeing similar responsiveness. If that plays out, this thing could be dealt with rather quickly. Let’s hope so.

MC (HeartMD) Best news I have heard in days. Thanks for posting this infroamtion,

Kindest Regards,
Steve

4 Likes

“All we have to do is look at growth rates in Southern Florida and California.”

Does everyone really think that California is Gidget, surfboards, bikinis, warm sun and fun all year round?

I live in southern Cal and i5 doesn’t really warm up here until July. The last couple of weeks it’s been raining a lot with highs around 60. Not exactly the environment for killing a virus. Central and north Cal are cold all winter. Go along the coast of central and northern Cali in the summer and as soon as the sun goes down it gets damn cold. You ever spend a summer in Monterey or San Fran? Fogged in and 59 most days.

TMB

3 Likes

Mask is critical as explained with the follow logic:

  1. We all know that COVID-19 spreads by droplets when the virus carrier coughs or sneezes.

  2. A portion of the droplets fall on surfaces (those with size 100-200 microns), the virus keeps active for a while.

  3. The rest of the virus carrier droplets (those with less than 100 microns) will suspend in air as aerosol for a while.

  4. When you touch the surface, your fingers attach some virus from 2.

  5. When your fingers touch your (a) eyes, (b) nose, (c) mouth, you are infected.

  6. ?SOAP, ALCOHOL WORK?If you do wash your hand thoroughly with soap or clean you hands with a suitable sanitizer (e.g. 60-90% alcohol). The virus on your hand will be destroyed or flushed away. SOAP AND WATER ARE THE MOST IMPORTANT ACTION because it successfully stop 5(a,b,c). BUT SOAP AND SANITIZER DO NOT STOP AEROSOL (3).

  7. ?BLEACH SOLUTION?Kills germs and destroyed virus, so it stops 4.

  8. ?MASK as a barrier to spread?It stops the spreading of droplets from the virus, so stops 2 and 3

  9. ?MASK as a barrier to prevent you from respiratory infections?A well designed mask with a proper filter filters off the aerosol droplets, so stops 3. It also prevents you fingers to stop touching nose and mouth 5(b,c).

  10. ?Goggles or similar eye protection?stop infection via eyes (5a).

4 Likes

It doesn’t make sense that the population’s herd immunity would come in seasonal cycles. People don’t get flu shots during the summer yet that is not flu season. People get flu shots during the winter yet that’s when people get flu, during “flu season.” And every year it’s a different flu so that’s why everyone gets a different flu shot, so if a new strain of flu virus broke out during the summer all these people who have no flu shot would not be immune to it

People throughout their life have exposure to a very large number of different strains of flu viruses. Partly this is due to vaccination; partly this is due to infection.
A flu strain that emerges in any given year will likely meet a population that is partly immune or at least resistant, because many people will have encountered that strain or a similar strain in the past. This is likely the reason why the Spanish flu did not kill many older people; they probably encountered a similar (but less deadly) strain 40 or so years earlier.

So for a flu virus, the number of hosts might be limited to just 60% of the total population. That means that it will rapidly run out of hosts. After it infects just 20% of the population, it will die out relatively quickly as herd immunity climbs beyond 60%.

That is the idea behind the herd immunity theory of seasonality.
My guess is that it is partly correct, but not entirely.

3 Likes

Thanks Heart MD. Here is an article from the NY Post on this regimen:
https://nypost.com/2020/03/19/old-malaria-drug-hydroxychloro…

Additionally the federal government has asked this company to produce 20 million tablets, so this has some hope.

Amneal Pharmaceuticals accelerates hydroxychloroquine sulfate production in response to COVID-19 outbreak (3.57 +0.38) :
Amneal Pharmaceuticals is responding to the national COVID-19 health emergency by building on its existing supply of hydroxychloroquine sulfate. Amneal is ramping up production of hydroxychloroquine sulfate at several of its manufacturing sites and expects to produce approx. 20 mln tablets between now and mid-April. Those tablets will be made available nationwide through Amneal’s existing retail and wholesale customers, as well as through direct sales to larger institutions in need.
Today, Amneal’s hydroxychloroquine sulfate tablets are approved by the FDA to treat malaria, rheumatoid arthritis, lupus, childhood arthritis, and other autoimmune diseases. Hydroxychloroquine is not approved for the treatment of COVID-19; however, it has been identified as a possible treatment for COVID-19, and the US government has requested its immediate availability.

Rob

2 Likes

Just FYI, I skimmed the French study just now. It was not randomized, they offered chloroquine to all patients and their comparison group was those that refused the treatment in their hospital and a group from another hospital not providing chloroquine. Small sample size, especially in the comparison group. They do not describe the criteria used to decide whether patients got azithromycine either other than saying ‘clinical judgement’.

Tread lightly, this is not solid evidence- as Tony Fauci stated yesterday.

Here is the paper:

https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/wp-content/uploads/20…

4 Likes

Four days ago I posted the following:

Our daughter, who is living in Beijing, after many days of sending us little videos of empty streets when she was out walking (nobody in the streets made it pretty safe for her to go out walking), told us that when she went out today, after a few days off, there were many more people out walking on the streets, and friends have told her that there were also more people on the subways. The big crisis seems to have passed. That was two months approximately from beginning to end in China. There’s light at the end of the tunnel. Pretty scary at its peak, but it wasn’t the end of the world.
Saul

Yep, here it is in the BBC. There is light at the end of the tunnel after all!

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-51981859/coronavirus-peopl…

Coronavirus: People in Beijing begin to head outdoors

After several days with no “home-grown” infections, according to China’s official figures, there is a feeling there that the coronavirus emergency appears to be under control.
People in Beijing are finally heading outdoors, as China correspondent Stephen McDonell reports.

But they are all still wisely wearing masks in the video he captured, and most also seem to be wearing disposable gloves.

We are probably two months behind them. I hope that all of us get through it alive.

Best wishes to you all,

Saul

28 Likes

Saul,

I hope you don’t mind my asking – you mentioned a couple of days ago that you wear a face mask when going out. Is there a particular type of mask you prefer or would recommend? I get a little confused regarding what type(s) of mask are effective when I read info from different sources.

With many thanks,

Todd

Not Saul but-It may not matter much which is the best if you can’t find any for sale, but the Curad brand "anti viral face masks " may be the best. You can make your own from pillow cases. Do a google search. Unlike other countries few in the US seem to be actually wearing the ones they are hoarding. At least where I live.

But they are all still wisely wearing masks in the video he captured, and most also seem to be wearing disposable gloves.

It’s not actually clear if gloves are a good idea. With their smooth surface, they’re probably more efficient than your uncovered hand when it comes to transferring virus from contaminated surfaces to your face.

I get a little confused regarding what type(s) of mask are effective when I read info from different sources.

For a regular person - if you’re not taking the temperature of a C19 patient who’s coughing into your face - ANY kind of mask is good.
Even cheap cloth masks or a shawl wrapped around your face make a big difference.

In a hospital setting (where you are exposed on a regular/constant basis to highly contaminated air), N95 in combination with a face shield is what you want.
But given the lack of N95 masks, the CDC first dropped its recommendation to surgical masks as “acceptable alternative” and has now suggested the use of “bandanas” and scarfs as a last resort.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/ppe-strategy/f…

1 Like

Earlier on, I saw some recommendations which suggested that other than health professionals or other care givers that were will infected persons, the people who should be wearing the masks were those who were infected since it kept what was in their mouth and nose from going out into the area. The suggestion was that wearing a mask by a healthy person for a long period of time may actually be counter-productive since the mask became damp and became a better source for catching the virus near one’s body. Don’t know if this is consensus opinion of health professionals, but it seems sensible, so I thought I would throw it out.

1 Like

Earlier on, I saw some recommendations which suggested that other than health professionals or other care givers that were will infected persons, the people who should be wearing the masks were those who were infected since it kept what was in their mouth and nose from going out into the area.

The problem is that by the time you know someone is infected, most of the time period in which they are infectious will have typically passed. And that doesn’t even count asymptomatic or low-symptomatic people. The only way to ensure that infected people wear masks is to make sure EVERYONE wears a mask.

The suggestion was that wearing a mask by a healthy person for a long period of time may actually be counter-productive since the mask became damp and became a better source for catching the virus near one’s body.

The exposure any healthy person who is not a healthcare professional has to the virus is relatively low.
I doubt very much that a mask with its porous surface would accumulate sufficient viral particles to become a significant risk - unless the wearer is exposed to so much infectious material that he would be infected anyway in the absence of a masks.

1 Like