OT:The chances of an upside surprise may have increased

Timmer: Investors should think twice before selling

The chances of an upside surprise may have increased.

That equates to a level of about 3,200 for the S&P (assuming earnings expectations hold up). This would imply another 9% of downside risk for the market


I’m not sure I would give too much credence to a Fidelity analyst post. Sure they have analysts, and they’re on Fidelity’s payroll to do one thing - to get people from moving out of (or getting people into) Fidelity’s revenue stream funds. Would you agree that the analysts that are on the payroll at investment firms are not as objective as one might want?

I’ve been a Fidelity customer since 1986 - have only been to an investment center to speak with an investment person twice. Both times, I found their service - well, not so great.

The first time (many years ago), the advisor tried feverishly to get me to immediately move my investments in the S&P 500 to a Fidelity managed fund with a high expense ratio. When I said that does not make sense to me, he shuffled me out of his office pronto.

The second time, (just a month ago) the advisor validated our lifetime investment plan (I’m retired and DW retiring next year), but also asked if I would like more “Fidelity investment guidance” for my portfolio. When I told him I prefer to manage my own investments, and I’m not a fan of “skim” he shuffled me out of his office in 38 minutes (for a one-hour appointment).

I really never log into Fidelity to read what their analysts say, just to make infrequent transactions. Do others have the same experience?



Not specifically for transactions. I like to keep track of the Macro stuff and ignore the Mutual fund advisors.



Similar, been customer since 98. Never touched the WM stuff, although some of their mutual funds (FLPSX to name one) have been stellar performers. Tried the “Community” there too, but quickly got annoyed by humble-braggers debating whether to reposition 10% more of their $5m portfolio into cash or fixed income. Envy? Sure. Whatever. :kissing_heart:


Funny. My experience is the same with them. Never got any good actionable ideas from their free advisors.

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By my estimate the forward P/E ratio is currently about 17.5. You can see it in my weekly Arezi Ratio post. That’s higher than your chart shows. On top of that, if we are headed into a recession or even a mild slowdown, then current estimates of future earnings are very optimistic. This means that the forward P/E ratio right now is over-optimistic. In a recession, annual corporate earnings may easily be slashed in half (they might be zero or less for a quarter or two), which could imply that the true ratio of current price to future earnings might be in the 35 ballpark.