OT: viewpoints

Investing Strategies Mechanical Investing
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Is winter coming for the stock market?
Not yet, says Jurrien Timmer. But investors should keep their eyes on earnings.
FIDELITY VIEWPOINTS – 06/15/2022 7 MIN READ

Key takeaways

Stocks are searching for their equilibrium, which has been a rapidly moving target as the Fed’s current rate-hike cycle continues to unfold.

Despite the uncertainty in the markets, there is little evidence yet to support the idea that the US economy is heading into a recession. Second quarter earnings season will be key.

There could be risks to the downside for stocks if earnings start to fall. On the other hand, if the persistent inflation pressures abate, there could be a significant relief rally for both stocks and bonds.

Investors may be well-served by maintaining an appropriately diversified portfolio and keeping a long-term perspective.

https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/m…

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Market outlook: Are recession risks rising?
The second quarter was a rough ride.
FIDELITY VIEWPOINTS – 07/20/2022 5 MIN READ

https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/market-and-economic-insi…?

Key takeaways

Markets: Stocks enter a bear market amid growth fears, rate hikes, and inflation.

Economy: The US is in the late-cycle expansion phase with moderate recession risk, while Europe faces near-term recession risks, and China may be emerging from its growth recession amid increased policy stimulus.

Investments: The biggest gainers in Q2 were in more-defensive areas, including consumer staples, utilities, and minimum volatility strategies.

Valuations: Cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratios for US equities remain above non-US valuations, suggesting a relatively favorable long-term backdrop for non-US stocks.

See Q3 2022 Quarterly Market Update Video 4:16

GD_

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6 ways to recession-proof your life
These moves make sense in good times and bad.
FIDELITY VIEWPOINTS – 08/03/2022 6 MIN READ

https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/personal-finance/pr…?

Historically, on average, investors
 
have received:                              have tolerated:
~8% annual return                           3 downturns of 5% per year
Positive calendar returns ~75% of the time  1 correction of 10% per year
                                            1 correction of ~15% every 3 years
                                            1 bear market greater than 20% every 6 years
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Historically, on average, investors have received: ~8% annual return…

Not a great ad for Fidelity accounts.
For owners of SPY, only those who bought during the tech bubble have done that badly ending now : )

The median “ending now” rate of total return, among all start dates 1993-2021, is over 10%.
Figures not inflation adjusted, as I assume was the case for the figures from Fidelity.

Jim

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