As I have written in the past, I subscribe to a few alternative services including: Beth.Technology (Beth Kindig) and Ticker Target (Bert Hochfeld).
The following post by Beth regarding her position on cloud oriented companies was of interest to me and perhaps some interest to those on this board.
“… The financial market rotation out of cloud disagrees with the tech industry on cloud’s projected growth and acceleration rates. This week is going to be very interesting with Microsoft reporting. According to the very best tech industry analysts, who study these specific trends day in/day out, cloud should be on an accelerated pace over the next 2-3 years. I like MSFT and I like BABA for their cloud. Until those bell weather-like companies tell me otherwise, cloud is still on. BABA of course could be exposed to consumer sentiment but MSFT is incredibly important for the health fo the cloud market.”
[This is not an advertisement for either of the services mentioned. Just an opportunity for me to share what I am seeing outside of this board. Also, based on some negative feedback the last time I did this, you can read and interpret the commentary as you wish. Personal attacks on the quoted analyst would be considered off-topic.]
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MSFT reporting - on Wed. We should keep an eye out on these early tech reports. If the cause for the decline is sector based, good earnings from even those stocks not closely related to ours but in the same general sector will show the pessimism was overdone. That things like polls and channel checks are not reliable. We do not know who they checked with, could be the janitor or mail-boy for all we know. because I don’t think many busy executives would waste their time that way.
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channel checks are not reliable. We do not know who they checked with, could be the janitor or mail-boy for all we know. because I don’t think many busy executives would waste their time that way.
A brief phone call once a week/month is far from a waste of time as it generally gets you all the anonymized data. CEOs want to know if their biz is slowing but the competition’s isn’t, and vice versa, or if all boats are floating the same way, I can tell you from personal experience.
Ed Hyman has been ranked #1 by Inst’l Investor for economic research 39 of 44 years and that’s what he built his business on. People pay for access to that data, you participate and you get it all for free.
Just to give one example of usefulness.
MSFT reporting - on Wed. We should keep an eye out on these early tech reports. If the cause for the decline is sector based, good earnings from even those stocks not closely related to ours but in the same general sector will show the pessimism was overdone.
I tend to agree.
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For those interested; it is my understanding that a free article is being published this week on MicroSoft, but the back story is on the unsubstantiated rotation out of the cloud sector. Not sure where it will publish, but I will keep an eye out for it.
From the author:
“The point of the upcoming article is to make it clear that the projections for cloud growth are not in agreement with the current rotation out of cloud. In fact, the rotation is sending the wrong message as the best gains on cloud are predicted to happen over the next three years at an acceleration of 200-300% compared to the last decade.”
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