Does anyone know when PN is going to release their earnings?
Originally, it was 8/9…now it apparently is some time between 8/11 and 8/15.
I checked with Investor Relations at PN, but did not get a response.
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Press release issued a short time ago: in case anyone is interested, the earnings will be announced before the market opens on Monday, August 15.
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azspeedy - I have mixed emotion on PN’s earnings next week. I’ve been holding for the final likely uptick once PN accepted the offer which “the Special Committee expects will yield a price per share that materially exceeds Ebix’s initial offer of $9.50 per share.” A few on this board have valued the $475M as a net final share price of about $10 to $11. I’m thinking that even if PN knocks it out of the park on the 2nd quarter 2016 earnings, the share price would likely be capped to the equivalent share price of the offer. However, the downside of the stock price is not capped for poor performance. Mr Market seems to be giving the price strength the last 5 days, so not sure how I’m going to play it.
Might sell some tomorrow to take my gains - that way if it falls due to the earnings call I can go back in as I believe this is going to happen north of $9.50. This one is my highest gains for the year so far.
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I am still holding PN and have been thinking on this ever since PN accepted the offer from EBIX. What I keep coming back to is the timing of accepting this offer compared to earnings.
By the time PN accepted the offer, they should already have had a good idea of this quarter’s performance (or even known the exact numbers). Even considering personal or political reasons to accept the offer, $475M enterprise value seems a very low offer to accept if this quarter were going to have amazing numbers.
A final price of $10 - $11 for the acquisition is as good a number as anything I have come up with, which would again likely limit any rise in price from the current quarter.
A bad quarter is certainly possible, but I think it unlikely. I have no clue how acquisitions work, but from a logical perspective I think a particularly bad quarter would at the very least cause EBIX to look a LOT closer at the details and rethinking their offer. Or perhaps $475M is a really great offer because everyone knew this would be a disappointing quarter.
Then, of course, we have the capricious market. The market still feels like it is under a lot of tension so even a normal no-surprise quarter could have drastic effects on the stock price (this is, after all, a micro-cap stock).
Lots of assumptions here. But also lots of things going on with PN I just don’t understand. I will probably sell my entire position today. As F1Fun noted I can always buy a new position if the price drops at earnings. Meanwhile, I have more lucrative places for my money than a stock with its return limited by an upcoming acquisition!
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othalan,
one correction - PN has NOT accepted the offer. press release reads …“has agreed to consider an enhanced offer for a potential acquisition by Ebix”
I guess if they have a really good announcement and the leaders think it will continue, they might pass on the offer. However, I believe this CEO wants to take the money and grow another business.
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F1Fun, thank you for pointing this out!
I have this distinct memory of reading they accepted the offer but clearly I am delusional as the press release from both companies says otherwise. Time to rethink everything!
Looks like the wheels are coming off!
Big miss and the strategy committee is finally making its mind up… nearly.
http://seekingalpha.com/news/3203223-patriot-national-misses…
http://seekingalpha.com/pr/16577628-patriot-nationals-specia…
Not sure if Ebix will still go ahead with the bid. If they drop I might by some EBIX.
Ant
I’ve made the mistake of buying/selling before earnings in the past so this time I decided to wait it out.
Sold at the opening bell for 9.19 after reading Q2 results this morning.
I will be curious to see what happens with the buyout talks going forward.
Now that the earnings news is out and PN is actually recognizing the offer and making some kind of decision, does anyone have a target price when they might want to consider an arbitrage position?
For my mind it has to be a lot lower than I previously considered given that the fall off in the business performance means that although there is probably a higher likelihood that PN accepts the offer, there is an increased risk it fails its DD and that a go it alone business value will be a lot lower without high double digit growth.
A
Now that the earnings news is out and PN is actually recognizing the offer and making some kind of decision, does anyone have a target price when they might want to consider an arbitrage position?
I have watched it drift lower recently. I was thinking maybe if it got to $8.50 but I haven’t read the earnings yet. Will watch up with it over the weekend.
A - I took the following from the PN press release to mean that they should be entering negotiations by 9/1.
Ebix is expected to complete its due diligence by August 31, 2016, as the Special Committee nears the conclusion of its evaluation of the prospects it has received …
I don’t think it will take long after that given the actions so far.
I also was waiting for an 8 to 8.5 price to add. There was a very large ~48,000 share limit buy order at 8.8 this afternoon that took anything that tried to go below that. Probably the CEO using $400K to protect any downside drift prior to the negotiations.