Phases of a project, Putin version

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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When I was at the pump seal company, there were a number of jokes making the round of the office. One was the phases of a project.

The project phases went something like this:

-elation.

-disillusionment.

-search for the guilty.

-punishment of the innocent.

I think there were a couple more phases, but the rumor mill indicates Putin is somewhere between #3 and #4 now.

Putin’s reported arrest of Russian intel official shows frustration with progress of Ukraine invasion: expert

Russian President Vladimir Putin has reportedly placed one of his top intelligence officials on house arrest, a move that one expert tells Fox News Digital would be a sign that he is seeking to shift blame for a Ukrainian invasion that U.S. intelligence believes has not gone according to plan.

Russian journalist Andrei Soldatov claims that Putin has arrested the head of the Federal Security Service, Sergey Beseda…Beseda has reportedly been placed on house arrest along with his deputy Anatoly Bolyukh…The Federal Security Service, known as FSB, is Russia’s top security and counterintelligence apparatus.

https://currently.att.yahoo.com/news/putin-apos-reported-arr…

So, we have a two bit dictator that demands he be told what he wants to hear. So the FSB, given a choice of going along or going to prison, chooses to go along. Now they are on their way to prison, as the official scapegoats?

Putin calls in reinforcements: 16,000 Middle Eastern fighters to join Russian invasion of Ukraine

https://currently.att.yahoo.com/news/putin-calls-in-reinforc…

The Russian government has asked China for military equipment and other support, a U.S. official told POLITICO on Sunday, possibly indicating that Moscow fears its position after struggling to advance deeper into Ukraine more than two weeks into its invasion.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/13/russia-china-milita…

Recruiting Syrian and Iraqi militiamen, and begging ChiCom equipment, while turning on his own people. Hilarious, if true.

Steve

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The classic 6 project phases.

  1. Enthusiasm

  2. Disillusionment

  3. Panic

  4. Search for the Guilty

  5. Punishment of the innocent

  6. Praise and honors for non-participants

intercst

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The classic 6 project phases.

Yup, looks familiar. I have that sheet somewhere in my joke file…somewhere.

Steve

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Russian journalist Andrei Soldatov claims that Putin has arrested the head of the Federal Security Service, Sergey Beseda…Beseda has reportedly been placed on house arrest along with his deputy Anatoly Bolyukh…The Federal Security Service, known as FSB, is Russia’s top security and counterintelligence apparatus.

Yes there will be Putin blaming them, but the real job Putin is doing here is putting the oligarchs on notice Putin will kill them if need be.

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Recruiting Syrian and Iraqi militiamen, and begging ChiCom equipment, while turning on his own people. Hilarious, if true.

Steve

I can’t help but suspect that the Chinese will receive remuneration in a form that has to be loaded on tankers or sent through pipelines?

Anymouse

How much oil does China import?
Summary Table
Barrels per Day	Global Rank
Oil Production	4,905,071	4th in the world
Oil Consumption	12,791,553	2nd in the world
Daily Deficit	-7,886,482	
Oil Imports	7,620,760
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I can’t help but suspect that the Chinese will receive remuneration in a form that has to be loaded on tankers or sent through pipelines?

The Chinese are sitting on the couches stuck in place. No movements. Locked down.

China has oil seeping out of its storage tanks going nowhere.

The Chinese are going to bed sick or to a packed hospital to die.

Thanks Xi! For all you do to make the world that little bit worse for humankind.

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I can’t help but suspect that the Chinese will receive remuneration in a form that has to be loaded on tankers or sent through pipelines?

The pipes to China are not built yet. The maps I see only show the planned pipes going from eastern Russia anyway, not connected to the pipe network feeding into Europe.

That leaves the Russian tankers making the trip from the Black Sea or Baltic, to China. A long pull vs the Middle East, and restricted to Suezmax ships, unless they want to make the trip even longer.

Steve

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The pipes to China are not built yet…That leaves the Russian tankers making the trip from the Black Sea or Baltic, to China.

Well, there is the Transneft pipeline system that goes all the way to the Pacific. It is then just a short boat ride to China.

www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=1zVDc7mS&a…

DB2

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The pipes to China are not built yet. The maps I see only show the planned pipes going from eastern Russia anyway, not connected to the pipe network feeding into Europe.

That leaves the Russian tankers making the trip from the Black Sea or Baltic, to China. A long pull vs the Middle East, and restricted to Suezmax ships, unless they want to make the trip even longer.

Steve

If you say so. }};-D

Eastern Siberia–Pacific Ocean Oil Pipeline
Length: 4,857km (3,018 miles)

Capacity: 1 million barrels per day

Start year: 2009

It is used to export Russian crude oil to Asia-Pacific markets, including Japan, China and South Korea.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_Siberia%E2%80%93Pacifi…

Gee, management was even accused of embezzling the equal of US$4 billion and there were complaints about China violating their supply contract!

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Well, there is the Transneft pipeline system that goes all the way to the Pacific. It is then just a short boat ride to China.

Take a look at the gas network. Whole lot of dashed lines of pipes not built yet between eastern and western Russia. Map in this article.

December 2, 2019

Massive Russian Pipeline Enters Service, Further Dimming Outlook for U.S. LNG in China

https://www.naturalgasintel.com/massive-russian-pipeline-ent…

So, when western Europe sucks it up and switches to LNG, from anywhere else in the world, what is Russia going to do for revenue?

Steve

1 Like
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I can’t help but suspect that the Chinese will receive remuneration in a form that has to be loaded on tankers or sent through pipelines?

North Asian buyers avoid Far East Russian crudes in March on sanctions, payment hassles
www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/market-insights/lates…
Crude oil from Far East Russia, usually a staple for North Asian refiners, is facing a dearth of buyers this month as mounting sanctions against Russia make the trade fraught with risk…Sellers were said to be offering alternative finance, credit and logistics options to buyers in a bid to offload cargoes that were already valued at steep discounts to similar oil. But so far, buyers remain on the sidelines, wary of the risk to their reputation and of the challenges posed by sanctions…

“Refineries across Northeast Asia, including China, have been cutting run rates amid lower supply of Russian crudes and limited replacement crude alternatives,” a trader with a Japanese trading house said…

Chinese independent refineries, end-users of ESPO cargoes, usually have to open a letter of credit with a banks in order to make the payment…But no banks are currently willing to provide L/Cs for Russian-related commodities to independent refineries, which instead have turned to telegraphic transfers or T/Ts to fulfill contracts, which is as good as paying in cash, according to sources…Some sellers of Russian cargoes are now said to be offering on a direct payment rather than L/C basis, but there are few takers…Support from China was being seen as crucial for stressed Russian sellers, but has failed to take off due to the lack of clarity among buyers and payment hassles, sources said. “Honestly, I think SOEs [China’s state-owned enterprises] might not be in a hurry to touch Russian crude without a clear vision against this Ukraine-Russian situation,” a trader with a North Asian refinery said.

DB2

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I can’t help but suspect that the Chinese will receive remuneration in a form that has to be loaded on tankers or sent through pipelines?

Low-priced Russian Urals crude cargoes attract Chinese buyers for June deliveries
www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/market-insights/lates…
Several Chinese state-owned refiners have returned to the Russian spot market to buy May-loading Urals crude barrels, attracted by their record discount…The discount for a Suezmax cargo of Urals against Dated Brent recovered slightly to $32.675/b on an FOB Novorossiisk basis March 21 from a record $33.36/b on March 15. "The price of the cargo for CFR China is a discount of around $17/b, " the refining source said.

Other refining sources with Sinopec and PetroChina in the central, east, northeast and south of China said the price was attractive, with some saying the companies were looking for vessels to carry the barrels. “One of the current problems is fixing a ship to carry Russian barrels, as not many shipowners are willing to take the risk,” a refiner source with PetroChina said.

China had stayed on the sidelines of the Russian spot crude market for a while due to the payment and shipping uncertainties generated by the Russia-Ukraine war. It was only around March 14 when India refineries were reported to have taken the crudes that sources with Chinese state-owned trading firms said China’s crude buyers would return to the spot market to buy Russian Urals.

DB2

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