Poll: Another tech meltdown in the works?

NASDAQ is getting hit kinda hard. High growth is getting slammed. Some say this time is different. Others are saying its going to get a lots worse still.

Me? I’m glad I did what rotation I did, but kicking myself for not doing more.

https://apple.news/ALpJya3F7SYudEU1TtiymxA

So, will tech and growth continue to slide?

  • By a lot, head to value and dividends
  • Yes, but stay in it, will rebound hard in near future
  • Buy the dip!
  • No, this time is “different”

0 voters

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Personally, I don’t think the sky is falling. But who knows, maybe.

The very high PE stocks or those with no earnings are taking quite a beating. But those with earnings with PEs down to the 20s seem likely to recover.

Much depends on future earnings. Do you think we are in for a major recession? Or will the Feds arrange a soft landing? Cathie Wood still thinks inflation is mostly temporary.

Rising interest rates impact discounted cash flow computers use to calculate the future value of stocks. That has resulted in major effect on speculative stocks. And that seems likely to continue at least while the Fed finds it necessary to raise rates.

Meanwhile the war threats make markets nervous. We hope those issues get resolved soon.

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I voted buy the dip, but it is more than a mere dip coming.

Yep, when is the dip over?

Others are saying its going to get a lots worse still.

It’s going to get better… if you like bargains…

SHOP < $400? https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp…

The Captain
no position

2 Likes

Cathie Wood still thinks inflation is mostly temporary.

The ‘problem’ with inflation forecasts is the timeframe…

Cathie Wood’s premise is that technology is deflationary, which it is, but the effect is long term while most people, specially those who live hand to mouth, have a short time horizon.

A good chunk of the inflation is mid term driven the supply chain SNAFO.

I believe the high tech ‘meltdown’ is not inflation related but the long awaited correction. When you look at charts like the five year SHOP chart I posted above, correction was to be expected. The difficulty is that you never know before hand when it will happen.

The solution to the quandary is to own stocks that will bounce back.

The Captain

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Yep, when is the dip over?

After the bottom! LOL

The Captain
knows the future after it has happened

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As of AM 2/21, ‘only’ 22 votes cast.

Given the traffic on METAR, I would have expected higher numbers. But it is a 3-day weekend for the Prez Birthday holiday.

FWIW: I’m one of the Captain’s tech watch optimists. Down for now, but ahead looks ‘okay’.

“…own stocks that will bounce back.” Reminds me of the Will Rogers’ advice: If a stock doesn’t go up, don’t buy it!"

Also from earlier: Be aware of and appropriately discriminate the difference between volatility and risk.

I stayed in spite of the current turmoil. So far.

The solution to the quandary is to own stocks that will bounce back.

I agree and I think most investors do.

There are those who believe all that low cost money has inflated stock prices (as well as real estate prices). I.e., we are in a bubble. And more adjustment is coming.

Real estate sales will likely be slowed by rising mortgage interest rates.

Cathie Wood also thinks the supply shortages have caused business to double and triple order to restock inventory after they lost orders due to lack of stock. She thinks those orders will fill over the coming quarter and then there will be sales to move unsold inventory. That too is deflationary and short term. Later this year.

Labor shortages remain a problem. Those who retired early due to Covid are not coming back. Mom’s who have to stay home due to school closures and or lack of child care may be back after Covid fades away. Wages are likely to remain high, but returning workers may moderate rising wage pressures.