Poll: Future of electricity generation

The world needs more electricity in the future and countries are now making decisions on which fuel sources they will need to develop and use.

What is your prediction on which fuel sources will dominate global new additions of electrical generation in the next 3 years (2022-2025)?

  • Coal
  • Natural gas
  • Nuclear
  • Renewables

0 voters

new additions of electrical generation in the next 3 years

This seems to be forcing the idea that countries can only create new plants. My suspicion is that old plants will be temporarily brought back online to deal with the “here and now” needs (Chinese and German coal have been the most publicized), but renewables will be the runaway leader for physically new installations.

4 Likes

The elephant in the room is invisible because electricity generation questions are stuck to the old utility centric paradigm! What if electricity generation becomes distributed with every roof doing its own sunlight harvesting.

There are few workers as punctual as Mr. Sun and he does not even get a salary. You just have to build him a nice office to work in and that’s all he asks for. If the Sun is the Mother of all energy sources maybe it’s Ms. Sun, not Mr. Sun! An important factoid to keep in mind!

The Captain

6 Likes

This poll is one of my ways of finding out how much people stay up to date on electrical power generation in this country and globally. We have posters on this and other boards that are dedicated to coal and others who are dedicated nuclear. As most of you know I am anti-coal because of pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, and I am anti-nuclear because of the economics, the safety, the complexity, and the nuclear waste. I have been a proponent of natural gas as a bridge fuel on the path to carbon free electrical generation.

This poll shows how much people listen to my engineering opinions on the future of electricity and how much they are entrenched in their personal beliefs about the future of electricity. I am afraid this poll shows that politics and personal investments color the thinking of many people.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) tries to pull together the facts and data from around the world about electrical energy and energy in general. I believe they are the best source for this information currently.

Here is what IEA writes in their new January 2022 report about global changes in electricity generation:
https://www.iea.org/reports/electricity-market-report-januar…

2022
Renewables: +778 TWhr
Coal: +109 TWhr
Nuclear: +16 TWhr
Nat gas: -10 TWhr
Other: -69 TWhr

2023
Renewables: 625 TWhr
Coal: -31 TWhr
Nuclear: +11 TWhr
Nat gas: +145 TWh
Other: -30 TWhr

2024
Renewables: +592 TWhr
Coal: -9 TWhr
Nuclear: +66 TWhr
Nat gas: +3 TWhr
Other: -9 TWhr

Jaak

2 Likes

People put too much trust in the polls they post.

PSU

4 Likes

People put too much trust in the polls they post.

PSU

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This poll demonstrated that most people on this board do not know where the money is being invested in the generation of electricity in the next 3 years.

Electrical energy generation is a macro economic importance at the center of world discussions regarding global warming and climate change disasters.

Renewables will represent 80-90% or new electricity in next 3 years.

Jaak

3 Likes

The elephant in the room is invisible because electricity generation questions are stuck to the old utility centric paradigm! What if electricity generation becomes distributed with every roof doing its own sunlight harvesting.

There are few workers as punctual as Mr. Sun and he does not even get a salary. You just have to build him a nice office to work in and that’s all he asks for. If the Sun is the Mother of all energy sources maybe it’s Ms. Sun, not Mr. Sun! An important factoid to keep in mind!

The Captain

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This poll was about the next 3 years of electricity generation. In the long term (20 to 30 years from now) distributed may play an major role in electricity generation.

Thanks for bringing up this important point for the long term.

Jaak

1 Like

Renewables will represent 80-90% or new electricity in next 3 years.

Jaak

I maybe the only one here recommending posts with reality in them but I will carry on doing so.

2 Likes

new additions of electrical generation in the next 3 years

This seems to be forcing the idea that countries can only create new plants. My suspicion is that old plants will be temporarily brought back online to deal with the “here and now” needs (Chinese and German coal have been the most publicized), but renewables will be the runaway leader for physically new installations.

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Old coal plants may be brought back online for emergency backup conditions for a few days, but they represent a small fraction of the new electrical power generation that will be built in the next 3 years. Most old coal plants are so inefficient and dirty that they are being demolished in China, Germany and USA. Many old single stage gas turbines (peaking plants) are also being replaced by batteries because they are more economical and cleaner.

Jaak

2 Likes

This poll demonstrated that most people on this board do not know where the money is being invested in the generation of electricity in the next 3 years.

How do you know that people on this board have not tired of your renewable posts so they messed with your poll by picking not picking that choice? I know of one poster that picked coal just to do that.

PSU

6 Likes

What if electricity generation becomes distributed with every roof doing its own sunlight harvesting.

Give up economies of scale, in exchange get extremely unreliable basic maintenance and a high accident rate when basic maintenance actually happens.

What’s not to like?

2 Likes

I know of one poster that picked coal just to do that.

PSU

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So you picked coal. Nice - pat yourself on the back.

1 Like

Give up economies of scale, in exchange get extremely unreliable basic maintenance and a high accident rate when basic maintenance actually happens.

What’s not to like?

You miss the point entirely! When someone installs solar and battery storage at home or for his business it’s not for the benefit of the grid! It’s in SELF interest! What happens in complex systems is that new properties emerge as if by magic. Given enough self interest in solar and battery storage, the distributed grid emerges all by itself. This is what conventional logic is missing.

Self interest could not have created the Interstate Highway System but it can create the distributed electric grid.

The Captain

4 Likes

"“What if electricity generation becomes distributed with every roof doing its own sunlight harvesting.”

What if?

Insurance rates for home owners insurance go up 15% to cover the cost of roof problems, of having to remove solar panels and then re-installing them after a routine roof replacement, the cost of roof penetration leaks, the cost of wind damage to the roof/structure when 90 mph straight line winds come howling through, the cost of repair after a 2 inch ice storm? So you add an extra $250/300 a year in insurance premiums for that privilege?

I’ve yet to see solar panels that work at night, and most in the winter time work maybe six hours in northern climes if you don’t adjust the panels to track the sun. Maybe less. In cloudy skies, probably 30% of rated capacity for 4 hours a day. So half the year, you suck power from the grid 2/3rds the time. So where is that power coming from? Not from your batteries that died after 3 cloudy days.

then we can talk about batteries - ten thousand plus for a homme installation to get you through the night on a sunny day. No power after 3 snowy cloudy days.

Plus of course, higher medical bills for folks climbing on roofs trying to clear the snow and leaves off their solar panels and slipping and breaking legs. It will be ‘hazard’ on home owners insurance like owning a pit bull or having a swimming pool.

And, just out of curiosity, where the heck are you going to get all that needed power at night from? When it’s 10 below zero and calm winds up north? Or during the day when it’s total overcast and snowing? or 50 below in MN?

One set of hail storms and it will be a billion in damage to solar panels…

If everyone goes solar, the power companies (with their own solar and wind) will wind up paying you NOTHING for power they don’t want in the summer time. there will be ‘too much’ solar and not enough users. They won’t even ‘take it’. Or give you credit for it. You will reduce your own bill.

t.

2 Likes

I’ve yet to see solar panels that work at night,

That’s because you have not been on my boat in a tropical paradise on a moonlit night! LOL

The Captain

3 Likes

t is a comedian about solar panels and batteries. I bet he has some on his house. The truth is that people keep installing solar panels and batteries on their houses. I never hear about the problems that t has imagined.

Jaak

2 Likes

Jaak:The truth is that people keep installing solar panels and batteries on their houses. I never hear about the problems that t has imagined."

“As an example of a very severe hailstorm’s financial damage, a 178-MW solar project in Pecos County, Texas, sustained $75 million worth of hail damage in 2019. The insurance company reportedly had typically paid out up to $1 million for hail claims in the past. As a result of this incident, however, the Insurance Insider article reveals that solar project insurance carriers have raised rates by 20 to 40%, and have imposed new deductible limits that will leave more hail damage on the balance sheets of solar asset owners.”

https://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2020/12/can-your-solar…

And no…I have no solar panels on my roof. I have a 60 foot high 60 foot wide oak tree in front yard that shades the front 1/2 of house and gives me tremendous savings on a/c bills. I’d have to cut down both front yard trees in order to get sun on my roof most of year and most of it is on E or W side, too. No south facing roof on back half of house.


My roof shingles have been replaced twice by hail damage in 31 years. took all the chimneys down across the street for 1000 feet with 100 mph straight line winds. Would cost another couple thousand to remove solar panels and re-install them if I had solar panels when roof damaged. If they survived the 100 mph winds. And the one inch hail. Fence got wiped out in one with 1 inch hail pummeling it - leaving 10,000 hit marks on 120 feet of 8 foot high fence. Solar panels would have been toast.

Wonder how many solar panels got roasted in the wildfire episode in CO? Lots of folks who like green energy there.

t.

3 Likes

Probability chart of hail > 2 inch diameter here

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2021/03/19/storm-season-has-the-…

Right over tele’s house in TX…

“Some 70% of solar insurance losses in the last 10 years have occurred since 2017, according to a report released by insurer GCube in early March. That reality has caused the insurance market to harden significantly over the past 18 months, with premiums increasing by as much as 400%.”

t

1 Like

“As an example of a very severe hailstorm’s financial damage, a 178-MW solar project in Pecos County, Texas, sustained $75 million worth of hail damage in 2019. The insurance company reportedly had typically paid out up to $1 million for hail claims in the past. As a result of this incident, however, the Insurance Insider article reveals that solar project insurance carriers have raised rates by 20 to 40%, and have imposed new deductible limits that will leave more hail damage on the balance sheets of solar asset owners.”

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The hail storm did not just damage solar panels. Cars, trucks, gardens, roofs, and many other items were damaged by by hailstorm damage. So do you advocate people not having cars, trucks, gardens, and roofs? Most of the country does not have severe hailstorms.

If people live in hazardous areas they need to pay for increased insurance.

Jaak

3 Likes