How much forward growth is in a mkt cap like that?
Hard to fathom.
My “the market crashed” target price for SNOW is $98.99 which I admit to being totally made-up, but which is still about a 50% drop from current AH price of SNOW as they are down about 30% at moment.
This definition is too apt: “Snowflake” is a derogatory slang term for a person, implying that they have an inflated sense of uniqueness, an unwarranted sense of entitlement, or are overly-emotional, easily offended, and unable to deal with opposing opinions. The term gained prominence in the 2010s.
Your thoughts are?
Well. Duh. What did you expect?
Seems harsh
Valuation doesn’t matter. I was told that by the internet.
mkt cap WAS $80b. Down 30% in AH, means new mkt cap of $56b.
runrate is about $1.4b (not sure on seasonality here).
being conservative, and just giving them benefit of runrate and high-end of guidance close to 70%, then they could/might do $2.5b in revenues in 2022.
$2.5b in 2022 forward revenue on mkt cap of $56b = forward P/S of 22
Ok, well that sounds reasonable, right?
Yeah, but we want to make money.
So we need the multiple to finish 2022 ABOVE 22. Let’s shoot for 30, which is rich, but companies growing 70% (or more) at a $2b runrate are hard to find, and they should get a premium.
30 forward P/S on $2.5b = 75b mkt cap
You buy now (ignoring stock comp changing mkt cap) and your gains in 2022 could be about 34%.
Given we are already 2 months into the year, a 34% return is probably equivalent to 38-40% CAGR.
What say you? Got any AH takers?
Or do we think the stock goes even lower after CC and in tomorrow’s open?
Just like with ZS, I sold before markets closed. With the way the market has been reacting to these high growth stocks, I wasn’t taking a chance. I bought back ZS the next day, will wait and see what happens with SNOW tomorrow. With “only” guiding for 65% growth when they usually guide for 80+, it may go lower tomorrow.
I put in a $185 limit order in AH. Looks like I missed chance, but it might come back.
Not interested higher.
Could easily be worse tomorrow, depending if macro market up or down. So either I get my price, or que sera sera.
Going to go crush the gym. Mask-less. All apologies in advance, as the improved air flow will undoubtedly lead to a massive increase in strength and efficiency.
I wish your poll had another option: I don’t know and don’t have a Clue.
That would have gotten my vote. The problem with SNOW is valuation and the Guidance slow down. Everyone I think agrees that SNOW is a great company - that has my vote also. But trying to make an argument by using rational benchmarks and reasonable multiples is - in my most humble of opinions, most likely doomed to fail. Primarily and largely due to the fact that high growth folks are seldom rational or logical about their current heart-throb companies. SNOW is just such a company.
The only numbers that mattered to me was the current reported growth of 101% - the 178% Net Retention, and the 99% RPO growth Y/Y - who does those types of numbers: no one.
So all the various discussion back and forth about SNOW comes down to simply this: Do you think the valuation at the current price - about $220 AH - will provide you a decent return. I do - but by what increment of “decent” are we talking about here. Well…that depends on whether the SNOW fanatics return to their hyper, irrational willingness to pay thru the nose - or - whether your reasonable and rational calculations rule the day. If I pick up shares it will only because I am betting on the former.
For anyone out there irrational enough to give a rat’s about what I did/have done recently:
On 2/28 I sold some UPST at $142.97 and bought more LNG at $134.79. After hours, UPST is $144 and LNG $133.85. Pretty much nothing, but under water.
Yesterday, 3/3, I bought SNOW premarket at $207.50. Had up $20 in the first hour of regular but ended at $219 in after hours so temporarily some green. I’m thinking of holding this position for “a while”. Put in a lowball $137.94 order for UPST. Never got below even $144. Well, I can be a dreamer, too.
Sets of 5 now.
Chased a stray dog down the driveway. The immature coconuts are football-shaped, the size of a beer bottle, perfect projectile. But, dinged up the right, ACL-repaired knee so limping around the house today, trying to stay off it as much as possible. Maybe have to eat those 4 eggs for tissue repair.
Workout music. Gotta have, Maniac, Michael Sembello; She Works Hard for the Money; ? We Built this City, Starship ?; maybe even Love Shack, The B-52’s… but that’s a stretch. Most of that 80’s rock and roll would be worth a listen. Let’s Hear It for the Boy (as Dreamer nears max effort)
champ,
my infallible napkin math came to a conservative view of $75b mkt cap for SNOW at eoy was reasonable.
Of course, in any spurt of feel-good FOMO, we know that can get smashed. Again - trying to be conservative on purpose.
So I wanted to see it sub-$200 to make the CAGR for the year interesting.
I also saw it drop to $188 or whatever in AH after ER released, but I didn’t jump quickly enough.
So I am hesitant to chase at $225 because I just feel the upside may be limited and we need the feel-good vibes to return and remain for any decent CAGR. I want a stock that is well-priced and will succeed regardless of the market/growth sentiment out there. Don’t think that is SNOW at $225. Maybe for trading block, but not as a core holding for next 10 months.
The ER was very recent, so we still have 3 day rule and whatever other voodoo magic that could shake the tree a bit and bring SNOW back down once more.
I almost pulled the trigger on SNOW today at about $212 or so - but haven’t just yet. It’s that pesky valuation that I just can’t manage to climb over. And to the point - a confused mind always says no and I have one of the most confused minds around. Ask anybody.
But…the day isn’t over and I still might - but if I do then SNOW will be on a tight leash with a sturdy Stop Loss; which in/and of itself just shouts caution and adds its very own amount of doubt and angst to the clouds.
So…I hear you and believe your assessment makes more sense than the others I have heard. Just today for example, Saul used some analyst or other - I lose track of them, that sent out some letter or other stating unequivocally that SNOW is now undervalued and a fair price would be $295. Now…playing against Saul is sort of like playing Alabama in football or maybe Gonzaga in basketball - odds are you are going to lose your side of the equation. So there’s that.
Given all that - in the back of my chaotic mind, I keep questioning why mess with SNOW anyway - especially with the all the doubts, when there are so very many fine targets out there. Lots of fish in the sea and all that.
So I am on the fence - and - I hear you.
All the Best,
By the way - take a few cans of food out of the Creamer pantry and stop by the local food bank. Its a win all way around as the hungry families that need the food bank will appreciate it and you get to go back to the store and purchase new cans of food for the pantry.
