Poll: What is our recession outlook for the US?

[mostlylong]

So far, our crowd sourced recession forecast appears accurate.

@mostlylong

Overall, I would say our gdp slowdown started in Q1 after new executive policies started to roll out and the slowdown continues today.

And there are data to support that claim, posted above.

The data says the slowdown continues.

@mostlylong

Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving benefits, rose to 1.92 million in the week ended April 19, the highest since 2021…

And also:

@mostlylong

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 1.1 percent on May 1

@mostlylong

That +2.4% GDP growth forecast (yesterday) is all of a sudden +1.4% (today).

That +2.29% contribution from consumers is now +1.31%.

It seems the trend is lower GDP growth.