U.S. Economy Contracts

[mostlylong]

@Hawkwin

initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 2.4 percent on April 30.

Of course a lot can change in the next two months but GDPNow is forecasting a sold second quarter.

@mostlylong

With only 1 month into Q2, with not even 1 month of data (data will be lagged from the calendar), the Q2 forecast is probably quite rough.

Even the actual measure of GDP can be subject to large revisions

Apparently a lot can change in one day, as new data come in.

That +2.4% GDP growth forecast (yesterday) is all of a sudden +1.4% (today).

That +2.29% contribution from consumers is now +1.31%.

It seems the trend is lower GDP growth.

Just following the data, bodes poorly.

Latest estimate: 1.1 percent — May 01, 2025

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 1.1 percent on May 1, down from 2.4 percent on April 30. After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real private fixed investment growth fell from 3.3 percent and 1.4 percent, respectively, to 1.9 percent and -0.7 percent.

@mostlylong

a big chunk of the Q2 positive growth, the current +2.4% forecast for Q2 GDP growth, comes from +2.29% in personal consumption.
…
Seems suspect to hang a forecast on consumer spending, given all of the other data we have seen lately (sentiment, measures of factory order and cargo slowdowns, etc).