May Advanced Retail Sales (ARS) were -0.9% versus April, weaker than expected (-0.7%).
Using the regression model noted above, forecast PCE (consumer spending used in GDP) projects to a forecast of about 0.2% PCE (nominal), with range of about 0.0% to +0.4%.
CPI inflation for May was 0.1%. So adjusting the above forecast for PCE for inflation gives about +0.1% (-0.1% to +0.3%) real PCE for May.
Summarizing for Q2, real PCE is
+0.1% Apr actual
+0.1% (-0.1% to +0.3%) May forecast
+0.2% (0.0% to +0.4%) quarter-to-date forecast
In April, the actual came in on the low side relative to the above regression model. Will be interesting to see if that repeats or not for May.
The consensus forecast for May PCE is +0.1% nominal, 0.0% real if adjusted for CPI like above. This would give 0.1% qtd, or 0.6% annualized.
The above points to weak consumer spending so far for Q2 2025, about 1.2% annualized (only +0.6% from consensus), which would have a corresponding weak contribution to Q2 GDP.
GDPNow shows Q2 PCE of 1.9%, which seems a tad high relative to the above forecast and consensus.