Maybe the push for lower interest rates has nothing to do with Proles. Maybe he and his cronies want to be able to borrow cheaper? Some years ago, we were discussing how the stock market dumped when interest rates went up, and the market flew when rates went down. We talked about how the 'JCs" were addicted to the “crack” of cheap money.
Steve
Maybe, but only along side his urgent political need to be seen “fighting” evil arrogant governmental/business elites who keep pushing up prices. When politics becomes obsessed with appearances rather than reality we are not in good shape….
Agreed
He is not thinking how the budget translates into the policies he pushes. The twain shall never meet.
He knows his appearance is no good. I don’t think he knows what to do and it leaves him stumped.
Right now the press is trying on the let’s show respect. Setting up marketing opportunities later when they scream about the coming failures.
The usual drill is to find some little, third world, country, to bomb. Makes the POTUS look “strong” and “decisive”.
Steve
Great picture. Where did you find it?
DB2
It’s all over the net. Just search for Calvin Coolidge Indian headdress. As history was always my favorite subject in school, I have known about those pix of Cal for 50 or 60 years.
Steve
I always thought those pics were common knowledge.
The GDP number just came in at 3%, much higher than the above and GDPnow.
DB2
Federal data is going missing.
The link has both the audio and a transcript.
Context, beyond the “better than expected” spin.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the second quarter of 2024 (table 1), according to the “second” estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 1.4 percent.
Steve
In the FWIW category…
U.S. private payrolls increased more than expected July, the ADP National Employment Report showed on Wednesday, though the labor market continues to slow.
Private payrolls rose by 104,000 jobs last month after a revised 23,000 decline in June. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment increasing 75,000…
DB2
Context.
ROSELAND, N.J., July 31, 2024 /PRNewswire/ – Private sector employment increased by 122,000 jobs in July and annual pay was up 4.8 percent year-over-year, according to the July ADP® National Employment Report
Yeah, I get it. Everything must be “better than expected”.
Steve
That is disturbing because now they can shape the data to be what they want. Everybody complains that the data wasn’t extensive enough but at least it gave us a standard we could base it all on. Now the game is being changed so how do we compare.
Except when it’s not. From the last ADP report a few weeks ago…
A new ADP report out Wednesday showed private employment unexpectedly fell by 33,000 in June, the first loss since 2023. Economists expected an increase of 99,000…
DB2
If you read the link, the changes have to do with DEI-type reporting. “Since Jan. 20, we’ve identified over 400 changes to federal forms and surveys, specifically to comply with administration priorities, such as erasing gender identity and DEI.”
The article does mention that “Federal funding for the main statistical agencies — like the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Commerce Department — has been tight for years.”
DB2
That is part of the Data. You do not want to know how many women are in the work place? You don’t want to know how many are of different ethnicities? We all know when you apply for a job they want to know that
But that isn’t the only thing they are doing, although messing with any of the data is concerning. It gives people a reason to doubt it.
This is concerning and has nothing to do with DEI. Cuts have consequences.
“The biggest impacts so far have been just the reductions of force, which are collateral damage,” said Pierson, leaving fewer trained statisticians to sample, survey, and analyze results for error, seasonal, or regional variation. (ASA is monitoring individual actions to change federal databases and data collection here.)
This, combined with funding cuts, is starting to impact core economic data, like the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ consumer price index, said Michael Strain at the American Enterprise Institute.
“We’ve seen the government do less field surveys to come up with the official measure of consumer price inflation, and that’s just because they don’t have adequate funding,” he said. “If the government slightly mismeasures consumer price inflation, that can mean spending hundreds of billions of dollars on Social Security payments that it shouldn’t be spending.”
Strain said maintaining the quality and integrity of federal economic data “is something that I am very concerned about. High-quality government data is extremely important to financial markets, business decisions, households’ decisions.”
[quote=“DrBob2, post:56, topic:115770”]
The article does mention that “Federal funding for the main statistical agencies — like the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Commerce Department — has been tight for years.”
[/quote]
The International Monetary Fund is upgrading the economic outlook for the United States and the world this year and next because President Donald Trump‘s protectionist trade policies have so far proven less damaging than expected. The IMF now forecasts 3% growth for the global economy this year…
The Chinese economy, the world’s second biggest, is expected to grow 4.8% this year, a hefty upgrade from the 4% the IMF had forecast in April. China is getting a boost from lower-than-expected US tariffs and from government spending.
The 20 economies that share the euro currency are collectively expected to expand 1%, up from the 0.8% the IMF had forecast in April. But a big chunk of that growth is coming from a surge of pharmaceutical exports from Ireland, which were timed to beat Trump’s expected tariffs on drugs.
Japan remains in a slow-growth rut and is expected to eke out an expansion of just 0.7% this year and 0.5% next. India is once again expected to be the world’s fastest-growing major economy, expanding a forecast 6.4% this year and next.
DB2
Bob,
According to NPR at 530 am this morning, imports declined creating an appearance of growth in the GDP. The quarter was not good a further slowdown.
However, things are looking better than “By September millions will have been laid off and thousands of bankruptcies will have happened.”
DB2
