Haha. Beer market. That’s what I’m in now that I can’t afford champagne. 
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D) My guess is that democracy in the US will not be continuous, too many now want authoritarian/strongman leadership. My guess is the democracy will return at some point.
E) Capitalism is more likely to survive but if D above proves accurate some of your investments will be stolen by the authoritarian/stronmen or their supporters.
You are much more sanguine about this scenario than I.
When an authoritarian takes control of a government and the levers of power, democracy doesn’t just return at some point. It is in the authoritarian’s (and their inner circle) interest to retain power and to shut down any roots of democracy. And they’re usually brutally effective in doing this.
A return to democracy, if ever, usually entails a huge political and economic shake up.
And economies under authoritarian rule usually do not flourish.
It is better to fight for a democracy you have than to fight for one you hope to have at some point.
The rest of your points are spot on.
AW, a believer in democracy and BRK
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Personally, I’m not as comfortable about Berkshire post Warren and Charlie and indeed Ajit too, (the Three Amigos), I’ve diversified significantly from a 90% holding down to c35% holding. The recent share price at high price to book values sped up that selling process probably a year or two ahead of schedule.
On the flip side I’ve been buying some again on the recent weakness in price.
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Hey Alpha…I’m with ya on BRK.
‘President Lyndon Johnson provides an example of effective authoritarian leadership. In Congress, Johnson was known for his aggressive style and his remarkable ability to get legislation passed. When one senator quipped, “Rome wasn’t built in a day, another responded, “Lyndon Johnson wasn’t the foreman on that job.” As President, Johnson sought aimed to remake American society. His sweeping vision included civil rights, voting rights, and Medicare. To achieve his goals, Johnson would cajole, threaten, charm, and browbeat opponents into submission. In hindsight, it almost appears that Johnson’s sheer force of will drove his landmark bills through Congress.
If unchecked, an authoritarian leader can prove disastrous. The U.S. Govt Process enables such “checks”.
While authoritarian leaders may be exceptionally productive, some may also cause major harm. The Kim family of North Korea is an extreme case of authoritarian leadership. In North Korea, senior advisers are terrified of Kim-Jong Un with good reason. Instead of honest advice, these men offer useless flattery instead. Kim-Jong rules unchecked.’
As WEB has said repeatedly, I won the genetic lotto… “No better time or place to be born.”
Best Always to You/Yours!
Paul (…the Sun will come out tomorrow guy)
Personally, I’m not as comfortable about Berkshire post Warren and Charlie and indeed Ajit too, (the Three Amigos)
“Flying Blind” is ostensibly a book about the 737 MAX, the Lion Air and Ethiopia Air tragedies, regulatory capture, and broken engineering cultures. It is a good book on all of those topics, but it is a seriously underrated book on corporate dysfunction and the substantial harm that short-sighted and greedy leadership can do. It took so little time for McDonnell-Douglas and the Jack Welch wannabes that came with it to ruin Boeing and it’s century of engineering greatness. Excellence is vulnerable and fragile, and that is true for Berkshire and many other things.
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“C) If you invest using valuation and diversify into productive businesses via the stock market and democracy/capitalismm survives you will be old and have enough money to finish out this wolderful experience.”
I like the idea of buying good businesses that one can hold long term. Could you please elaborate on the attributes of such companies, and, if you don’t mind, name a few such businesses today? Many thanks.
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