… regarding all those bargains (I do not mark it OT as it concerns Berkshire too) constantly mentioned here and on the “Falling knifes” board: Berkshire, Google, Alibaba, Meta, Amazon, eBay, Paypal, Carmax, LYLT etc.
Why catching a falling knife instead of waiting for the loud “Boom” that says it reached the bottom?
A) Yes, I know the obvious answer: “What if there is no loud ‘Boom’, no crash, but it simply quietly and without warning starts it’s rise from the ashes?”
B) And yes, I also know the other obvious answer: “It definitely IS cheap now and I have a longterm view, so I don’t care whether it might get even cheaper. With a 5+ year time horizon it will be a good enough deal right now.”
Yada, Yada, Yada (That’s what native English speakers say to make clear all of this is already said hundreds of times, correct?
But isn’t that a bit too simple, to repeat those two sentences like Mantras? Isn’t that like narrowing ones view, looking only straight ahead and refusing to look to the sides, to see what’s going on around one? For example signs like those:
Or to look at an S&P chart and to form an opinion about the likelihood for this (Origin: Jim):
Just wondering as especially B) is THE Mantra here since months now regarding not only Berkshire - while all those stocks are getting cheaper and cheaper. To nevertheless simply constantly repeat this mantra makes the impression to me as if people who might have bought stock X “cheap” and a bit later even “cheaper” and now “super-cheap” are forming kind of a “support group”, telling each other what a great deal they made, no matter how deep they might be in the red currently with their bargains?
Heresy? Or maybe a tiny grain of truth?