Getting ahead of myself here but cut both PLTR and UPST today.
Upstart - purchased on 5/24 for $25.31 and sold today at $26.87 for a short 1 week gain of just over +6%.
PLTR - purchased 5/24 for $12.25 and sold today at $14.75 for a short 1 week gain of
+20%.
Looking at a variety of replacement players including:
DT
MBLY
ONON
NET
DV
ASAN
MDB
MELI
Hate to start the month early without the immense benefit of Starting Gate analysis; largely because, while I am absolutely pretty sure I definitely know what I think I know right now - I am pretty sure what I definitely think I know in a day or two could perhaps be better than what I think I know now.
I haven’t touched my UPST in a while… and I can’t explain why the stock price is going up now. Maybe some clever Phd’s have figured out how much the new financing will help the company and they’re bidding it up. Or maybe it’s just randomness. LOL. I plan to just maintain my “no touch” position of shares and calls (a combo of calls at January 2025 $17.50 and $22.50).
Despite the ongoing share price run-up of UPST, the portfolio allocation has been slipping. Now at ~4.7%.
SMCI, TSLA and ENPH are all doing well.
IOT reports today… and I’ll decide to hold or sell… and redeploy somewhere else.
CSIQ and ARBE continue to just sit there… they need more news to move the shares.
Someone brought a new company to Saul’s board the other day. A penny stock ($1.10!) for a company that is quite similar to UPST. I’m going to start tossing a few of my remaining dollars that way because there are some attractive opportunities selling options.
Dang! Almost forgot…lol… it’s PGY.
Rob
He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.
Rob - on PGY…not sure if you looked into it yet. It rings a bell, but I think I am remembering PAGS. Anyway, from chart, I am guessing it was a SPAC coming out of 2021, and then something nutty happened from about mid-July to mid-Sept 2022 where it popped to $20’s then back down to current price around $1.
Must be a story in there. Guessing a turnaround play. But feels a bit like MGNI to TTD, in comparing it to UPST.
ZS - why? Great report and off its high for the day
IOT’ - Slowly making a believer out of me
BILL - Smashed the $100 per share ceiling and seems happy to move-on a bit.
MNDY - Just following the portfolio rules; and as everyone knows, rules is rules
unless they ain’t.
Not all that much - just a bit for each as vote of confidence that perhaps, maybe, and potentially we are fresh in a new Bull. Who knows as the threats of a mini, soft, and light recession seems still on the table.
Noted for next week: SMCI and AMD continuing to look wobbly after great runs. Wondering at what price I would be be an investor. Also too - should PLTR get a little weak kneed from lack of oxygen at their new found heights I might add back.
Stocks that appear to want to come in from the cold:
I saw the $PGY post on Saul’s board and did some research on it as well. I took a position in it with the extra dollars, and have kept adding to it. It reminds me of $UPST and seems to be riding the AI momentum. I imagine you saw Pagaya had their 8th deal this year, $800 Million ABS, and B. Riley gave it a buy rating. Earnings coming up soon, optimistic for the report, as AI in lending, finance, and insurance is just getting started.
From the SA article on B.Riley with the buy rating for Pagaya.
In a note to clients, Goetsch talked up Pagaya’s (PGY) artificial intelligence-driven method of allocating capital to consumers as an alternative way to expanding credit availability, saying it’s “more efficient and fair than many traditional methods.”
Specifically, its “AI models produce lower loss rates at similar approval rates or much higher approval rates at similar loss rates than traditional underwriting bank credit models,” he explained, noting that “under both outcomes, consumers gain access to more credit at lower rates than can be generated by the traditional banking system and other lending platforms.”
The total addressable market for personal loans, auto, credit card, and point of sale markets is huge, the sell-side analyst pointed out, estimated to be $2T annually. “PGY is in the initial growth stages of capturing its TAM opportunity.”
This was a good post on $PGY and the news that came out and the price increases over the past couple of months. I can’t copy and paste but here’s the url detailing the Pagaya rise.
I have been nibbling at PGY as well, still less than a 2% position for me. I do hold a lot of UPST too, so I hate to get too much money locked up into one sector. I agree that right now UPST much more expensive, but its looking more and more like some short squeeze action may happen. That stock still has a 37% short interest on it, and its been going gang busters with all this AI craziness happening.
With this new website, I don’t have access to post on Saul’s board, and can’t seem to figure out how to DM Philiproth. But he hasn’t seen anyone in $PGY yet. So I’m posting here in case he sees it that I too have been steadily adding to Pagaya. It’s grown to be 12% of my portfolio.
Everyone is initially blocked on Saul’s board unless you request permission from Saul. Therefore, if interested, go to Saul’s board and click on “Request Ability to Post”. I rarely post but was granted permission a few months ago. Good luck.