Inflation is moving much closer to 4% than 8% over recent months, a quick look at the data will show that.
You say this over and over again over the last several months: that real rates are negative. Can you show specifics, such as term, nominal yield, and expected inflation over that term?
Specifically, which rate that consumers and businesses actually borrow at currently, with a realistic forward inflation rate, results in a negative real rate?
I don’t think using the Fed funds rate is appropriate, consumers and businesses don’t borrow at that rate.
I don’t think using trailing 12 month inflation is appropriate, that measures past inflation, not future inflation over the term of a hypothetical loan…
One phenomenon I bet we can agree on is that there is a lot of wealth in the world. This is wealth that doesn’t need to be used on consumption because the owners couldn’t realistically spend it all other than maybe print it and set it on fire and even that might be difficult. This wealth looks for a home in assets, which drives up asset prices: bonds, real estate, stocks, etc. I don’t see this phenomenon ending, so I see an excess of capital resulting in lower inflation, lower bond yields, and higher stock valuations (lower earnings yields).
Actually, your post is a perfect micro example illustrating the macro point, you are literally asking “I have more money than I need to spend, where can I put it, I’m struggling to find a place for it because yields are so low?”