I have a lot of cash on hand and am trying to formulate a plan to buy back into the market.
Am looking to transition to buying ETFs, mostly index funds with a juicing of risk/return with a bit of more specialized funds, in an effort to simplify our investments. Other than Ibonds, I don’t do bonds. Perhaps you could convince me otherwise, but I am not risk adverse and can take fluctuations in portfolio value. Currently the only value I see in bonds is a ladder for the 5 years of expenses that I consider to be outside the investment portfolio.
We are comfortably retired and have 5 years expenses out of the market. I am patient and have experience with ability to invest with volatility. I would like to turn our portfolio into a set and forget, as much as that is possible. A 2% withdrawal rate is sufficient to more than meet our retirement needs at this time, with this going down to less than 1% when we start taking Social Security.
I am not asking you to predict an absolute bottom of the market, rather trying to get a feel for what you think a healthy entry point into the indexes look like, particularly in a for the most part post Covid economy. Sure, the indexes are down substantially, but were they skewed due to Covid rather than high for fundamental reasons? Are we simply resetting to a new norm, or is it the continuing Covid Supply Chain issues that are depressing it? One investor on Bloomberg said they would be buying the S&P 500 somewhere around 3500-3800, but I didn’t catch why. If you are not interested in providing an entrance point, I would appreciate you talking about what you look for as triggers to entry, or data points and trends you look at to evaluate the index. I am much more interested in understanding the process than being told what to do.
I will do my own due diligence, but sure would value hearing a conversation about where you think the broad stock market is at currently and what you are looking for in order to put cash back in, or what you have seen, (no don’t time the market rants please,) that convinces you to stay fully invested. So far I have for the most part gone with my gut, which has done well for us, but I would love to quantify the market better, and be able to explain my instincts.
As important as what is going on in Ukraine right now, I can’t control that and am trying to focus on what I can control…when to pull the buy trigger and setting out a course of action for when action becomes reasonable.