Not my definitions. I think barring some kind of long global recession it is unlikely that temperature rise can be limited to 2C. Given current trends I suspect the best we can hope for, what I would call a partial success of climate policy, would be to keep the increase below 3C. A complete failure in my book would be the scenario drbob seems to be advocating, a continuing use of fossil fuels for the foreseeable future with a temperature rise >3C and perhaps even approaching 4C.
These are optimistic assumptions not supported by science.
A tipping point represents a threshold that once surpassed leads to an irreversible change of state that can be rapid and catastrophic to the status quo. Climate scientists and biologists have identified dozens of plausible tipping points that could have catastrophic consequences associated with climate change, from the sudden collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet, the rapid melting of the Arctic permafrost, halting of major ocean currents, collapse of pollinator populations, etc. Any one of these could have catastrophic economic consequences.
In addition, the occurrence of one such tipping point event will likely trigger other such events, potentially moving from simply catastrophic to something that seriously threatens modern civilization.
Problem is that while these climatic and biological tipping points are scientifically plausible, the technology isn’t available to predict the likelihood of their occurrence. The best current science can say is that the more humans change the current climate, the greater the probability of a tipping point event.
From a recent paper in the journal Science:
Climate tipping points occur when change in a part of the climate system becomes self-perpetuating beyond a warming threshold, leading to substantial Earth system impacts. Synthesizing paleoclimate, observational, and model-based studies, we provide a revised shortlist of global “core” tipping elements and regional “impact” tipping elements and their temperature thresholds. Current global warming of ~1.1°C above preindustrial temperatures already lies within the lower end of some tipping point uncertainty ranges. Several tipping points may be triggered in the Paris Agreement range of 1.5 to <2°C global warming, with many more likely at the 2 to 3°C of warming expected on current policy trajectories. This strengthens the evidence base for urgent action to mitigate climate change and to develop improved tipping point risk assessment, early warning capability, and adaptation strategies. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abn7950
The following is an editorial in the Proceeding of the National Academy of Sciences that asserts that the climate change threat to civilization is a legitimate scientific concern.
Climate change and the threat to civilization https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2210525119
In fact, your assumptions of a strong economy in a warmer future are currently being questioned by many economists.