Macroeclimactic Inedequacy and Risks

"We’re not going to make it to 2050. What’s going to be left by 2050 is a smoking ruin of what was once a civilization, ravaged by pandemics, incinerated by megafires, desperately seeking salvation in theocracy and waging bitter wars, fascism pitting neighbors at one another’s throats, like in America, a thing of shattered systems and institutions, a mere haunted memory of a civilization.

https://eand.co/were-not-going-to-make-it-to-2050-5398cf97b8…

Someone out there is having a very bad Monday

–sutton

"Our progeny will regard us the way we regard Stone Age people, or maybe medieval sorts — why didn’t they do anything, they’ll wonder? Why did they sit there glued to dumb Marvel Movies and debating pronouns and letting demagogues scapegoat and hate…while their planet died?": sounds like someone recorded the rant I subjected one of my US Senators to in May

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Cool it with the Apocalypse.

‘Apocalyptic climate predictions’ mislead the public, say experts
www.theguardian.com/environment/2009/feb/11/climate-change-m…
Experts at Britain’s top climate research centre have launched a blistering attack on scientific colleagues and journalists who exaggerate the effects of global warming.

DB2

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Poor timing there, DB2!

The UK is melting under record heats (e.g. London 100F).

At least they won’t have a “brown out” from running their air conditioners!

https://www.google.com/search?q=uk%2C+percentage+of+homes+wi…

sunrayman
former resident of Suffolk

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‘Apocalyptic climate predictions’ mislead the public, say experts

Poor timing there, DB2!

Don’t confuse weather with climate.

From elsewhere on the globe:

Parts of Queensland shivered through colder weather than Victoria this week, and the Northern Territory has been busy breaking winter records of its own. But an icy blast will soon put the chill back where it belongs.
www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-16/why-does-this-winter-feel-so-…

Alice Springs freezes through longest streak of sub-zero days on record
www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-14/alice-springs-record-breaking…

Brisbane City records coldest morning this year, as several Queensland towns drop below freezing
www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-10/cold-weather-hits-brisbane-an…

The Coldest April in the Satellite Record over the Pacific Northwest
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2022/05/the-coldest-april-in-…

May 2022 will go down as one of the wettest and coolest in Northwest history, setting the stage for a delay in the regional wildfire season.
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2022/06/how-bad-was-may-could…

DB2

5 Likes

"We’re not going to make it to 2050. What’s going to be left by 2050 is a smoking ruin of what was once a civilization, ravaged by pandemics, incinerated by megafires, desperately seeking salvation in theocracy and waging bitter wars, fascism pitting neighbors at one another’s throats, like in America, a thing of shattered systems and institutions, a mere haunted memory of a civilization.

I’ve been hearing similar predictions since the 1970s - aside from the deadline for doomsday, which is usually 20-30 years from the date the prediction is made.

And the bit about fascism, when present in the prediction, usually turns out on closer examination to be a condemnation of people who tolerate diversity of opinion.

5 Likes

From elsewhere on the globe:

The highest-elevation parts of the Going-to-the-Sun Road in Glacier National Park normally open sometime in June, occasionally in May, once the entire length of the road is cleared of snow.

They originally - for the very first time after the road was completed - officially opened on July 15, 1933. However, they had in practice been open since July 11. Also, there was a big ceremony with visiting dignitaries for that initial opening, so it had to be scheduled well in advance; therefore they scheduled it late enough that they were highly confident that the road would in fact be open, and then there was no pressure to get the road open weeks earlier. (I’d really love to find what dates the road opened in 1934 and 1935.)

Other than that official original opening, the LATEST opening has been July 13. Which has happened three times: 2011, 2020, and 2022.

The 2020 late opening was officially because of the pandemic. 2011 and 2022, because of weather.

Parts of Queensland shivered through colder weather than Victoria this week, and the Northern Territory has been busy breaking winter records of its own. But an icy blast will soon put the chill back where it belongs.
www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-16/why-does-this-winter-feel-so-…

Alice Springs freezes through longest streak of sub-zero days on record
www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-14/alice-springs-record-breaking…

Brisbane City records coldest morning this year, as several Queensland towns drop below freezing
www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-10/cold-weather-hits-brisbane-an…

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DB2 does not understand that it is winter in Australia.

Jaal

3 Likes

The Coldest April in the Satellite Record over the Pacific Northwest

Alice Springs freezes through longest streak of sub-zero days on record

DB2 does not understand that it is winter in Australia.

Of course its winter in Australia. It is also summer in the northern hemisphere.

Don’t confuse weather with climate.

No you are confusing everybody with your anti climate disaster drivel.

I hope so, because the disaster/catastrophe part is wrong.

www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2019/11/25/why-eve…
I asked the Australian climate scientist Tom Wigley what he thought of the claim that climate change threatens civilization. “It really does bother me because it’s wrong,” he said. “All these young people have been misinformed. And partly it’s Greta Thunberg’s fault. Not deliberately. But she’s wrong.”

DB2

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And the bit about fascism, when present in the prediction, usually turns out on closer examination to be a condemnation of people who tolerate diversity of opinion.

Diversity of opinion could get you burnt at the stake a while back.

The Captain

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Thank you for recommending this post to our Best of feature.

And the bit about fascism, when present in the prediction, usually turns out on closer examination to be a condemnation of people who tolerate diversity of opinion.

Diversity of opinion could get you burnt at the stake a while back.

The Captain

Yup!

Anymouse <hang them all, God knows his own>

The Bamberg witch trials, which took place in Bamberg in 1626–1631, were one of a series of mass witch trials in southern Germany, contemporary with the Würzburg witch trials and others. Over an extended period these trial resulted in the executions of around 1,000 people.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bamberg_witch_trials

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnAF1zdED0A

Bamberg Witch Trials

I asked the Australian climate scientist Tom Wigley what he thought of the claim that climate change threatens civilization. “It really does bother me because it’s wrong,” he said.

Over the past 40 years the planet has been warming almost 0.2 degrees per decade.

So, what have we seen with climate related disasters? Good news, actually.

Empirical evidence of declining global vulnerability to climate-related hazards
Formetta and Feyen
www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378019300378
Highlights:

  • We quantified the dynamics of socio-economic vulnerability to climate-related hazards.
  • A decreasing trend in both human and economic vulnerability is evident.
  • Global average mortality and loss rates have dropped by 6.5 and nearly 5 times, respectively, from 1980 to 1989 to 2007–2016.
  • Results also show a clear negative relation between vulnerability and wealth.

DB2

2 Likes

The planet is not going to die. We will probably witness a mass extinction event, in which we may participate, over the next 500 years. But the planet has been warmer and drier in the past, and will recover to a more benevolent climate, and repopulate with new species, in a few hundred thousand to a couple million years.

fd

6 Likes

But the planet has been warmer and drier in the past, and will recover to a more benevolent climate…

For the past three million years, the earth’s climate has been in an icehouse state characterized by alternating glacial and interglacial periods. A warmer, more benevolent, climate would be a good thing.

On a side note, it seems that people prevented an ice age recurrence.

Earth’s narrow escape from a big freeze
https://surplusvalue.org.au/Misc%20Articles%20and%20Poems/Ex…
A subject of much debate is whether atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide were already significantly altered by emissions associated with human activities before the Industrial Revolution in the eighteenth century. One estimate suggests that the atmospheric concentration of CO2 would have been only 240 parts per million (ppm) in an agriculture-free world, rather than 280 ppm, as was measured just before the Industrial Revolution.

On page 200 of this issue, Ganopolski et al. report modeling studies confirming that we would now be entering an ice age if the concentration had remained at 240 ppm By contrast, they report that glacial inception — the onset of an ice age — could not have occurred at CO2 concentrations that were typical of the eighteenth century.

DB2

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Don’t confuse weather with climate.

Tru dat!

But if you put enough weathers together, pretty soon you got yourself a climate;-)

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But if you put enough weathers together, pretty soon you got yourself a climate;-)

That sure merits a REC!

It is worth repeating!

But if you put enough weathers together, pretty soon you got yourself a climate!

The Captain

1 Like

DB2: writes:

For the past three million years, the earth’s climate has been in an icehouse state characterized by alternating glacial and interglacial periods. A warmer, more benevolent, climate would be a good thing.

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I don’t think the heat domes that are currently occurring in USA, Europe, Asia and the rest of the world are benevolent. Climate scientists are now saying that heat domes are the new normal and heat domes will increase as the planet keeps heating up from fossil fuels emissions of CO2 and other GHGs.

Soon Texans with all their AR-15s and anti-abortion laws will be migrating to Canada.

Jaak