After a warm reception to my last review, I decided I would adopt the monthly review as others have done, even though I tend to really only have time to pay close attention during earnings.
June was pretty incredible for 2.5 weeks and then I saw a pullback along with NVDA/SMCI, but still a great month. Here’s my YTD:
JAN: +11.38%
FEB: +19.98%
MAR: +3.37%
APR: -7.07%
MAY: +15.18%
JUN: +7.13%
YTD: +65.87%
Here’s my updated portfolio:
DECISIONS & COMMENTS ON POPULAR TOPICS
NVDA (+12%MoM)/SMCI(+10%)
Nothing but positive news and I’ve enjoyed the board comments pointing out that NVDA is not just hardware. I felt like the Apple comparison was spot on in terms of the flywheel potential.
In any case, NVDA was trimmed 3x to stay under the 25% cap I set, and SMCI trimmed once. They are a little lower in percentage right now because they dropped right after I trimmed. I’m contemplating giving NVDA no ceiling depending on how the next report goes.
NU(+9%)/TSLA(+11%)
These two were the primary landing places for my trims above. I don’t know what to believe out of Musk’s mouth, but the new models, the Robotaxi, the Robotics…I’m just not willing to miss out if any of it pans out.
After looking over all my companies, I decided that Nu has the most potential for growth, at my lowest allocation. I added to them before the Time article, and I hope that this gives them some exposure because they seem very undervalued based on their growth & volume.
IOT(-1%)/SNOW(-1%)
I trimmed them both a ton due to decent but uninspiring earnings, and growth that doesn’t justify their EV/Sales multiples. Mostly put these towards a house project, and they might be gone next month as I need to find $$ for the other half of the project.
PGY(+9%)/UPST(-5%)
I’m violently knocking on wood as I type this, but the inflation-related reports are finally starting to more consistently go our way. The market hasn’t really (over)reacted as they did in the past on these numbers, as UPST actually decreased this month and PGY made only a steady move (despite being horribly undervalued). I wonder if the viewpoint on both of these companies, but particularly UPST, has more permanently changed. I think PGY will prove itself in the next report as it hasn’t been as interest-rate sensitive and has two big partnerships (SOFI & US Bank), but UPST will likely need a few rate cuts before the numbers start to show.
PDD (-10%)
Out of my 4 tryout stocks (PDD, GCT, NTRA, ASPN), I felt PDD was the most proven and so I upped their position a little more than others. I will still hold them and the others through earnings, but PDD’s price got hit hard this month. They are facing privacy lawsuits and Amazon just announced a new Temu copy-cat service (very cheap, direct-from-China products). Yet PDD is right there with PGY in terms of being undervalued and are growing at over 100% YoY. Their EV/Sales is only 2.4x and P/E only 10.8x (PGY is 1.4 and 10.1).
It’s an alarming move by AMZN in my opinion. It smacks a bit of desperation and that makes me think maybe Temu is more legit than I thought. It also could end up eroding Amazon’s brand overall, and serve to actually ADD credibility to Temu et al. If Amazon isn’t able to execute as well as Temu in terms of Chinese suppliers & shipping, this could blow up in their face. It will be intriguing to watch, feels like a coin flip.
STOCKS I DON’T OWN BUT PEOPLE ARE TALKING ABOUT
CELH
I see that many are still bullish here. As I’ve mentioned in the past, I’m familiar with this industry having worked on a competitor product in my day job in Marketing Strategy. I warned about the steep slowdown in growth once they hit “peak distribution” with Pepsi, and I assume investors were also prepared for that. I would just be surprised if 38% became the floor for growth rates. This is a very competitive category and it is a very saturated category at this point. It’s not like it was when Monster entered and was able to expand the category for 2 decades. Gatorade just launched a competitor product, Monster has a competitor product, there’s PRIME, there’s Accelerator now that just launched. Furthermore if Celsius’ growth starts dropping, Pepsi may rethink the distribution. Celsius might get gun-shy and take their foot off the marketing gas. International is a huge opportunity, but I’m a little nervous for investors.
APPLOVIN
I have decided to stay out of advertising/media stocks as a rule, but I did look into this company and I just…don’t really get it. It sounds like they have a few different revenue sources but I’ll only comment on the advertising side: Much of their performance promise is the same as many other companies in the space, but maybe they really do have a magic box that no one else has. But it is growing at a good clip and accelerating. My only caution is that CTV & Mobile are very different. The goals are typically different, and also the types of brands that buy mobile ads vs. CTV can be very different. In CTV, attribution is very difficult, and therefore optimization happens a lot less, and outperforming in terms of performance is not always a story you can sell. So, I wouldn’t assume they will just AI their way to dominate CTV. But don’t trust me, follow the numbers. I sat on the sideline with Trade Desk wayyyy too long.
NXT
I’m still afraid of solar, although WPR’s post about potential “share of energy” growth was encouraging (50% of total energy production). I wonder how much of that depends on the political situation, but I hope that pans out. It looks affordable, so if I find some money, I might start a position. I don’t think I’d be willing to sell anything I own yet.
SAUL’S AWESOME POST ABOUT WHAT’S IMPORTANT
I’m 37. I got started a little late in terms of the whole wife, kids and house thing, a few years ago. I got married during the pandemic, moved to one of the most expensive cities in the world, had a child (2nd is on the way), and made a “Just Do It” decision to buy a house while interest rates were pretty high although not the peak. I’m now “house poor” and have not added cash to this portfolio in a year.
However, because of this board, I have almost tripled my portfolio since I bought the house in Jan 2023, and I can sleep peacefully. I sold a big chunk of gains to expand my backyard so that we would be encouraged to spend a lot more time in it. I am selling more gains to do the same to the front, let my daughter and dogs play out front and maybe befriend some neighbors. And I’ll still be well in the green despite the difficult financial situation most people my age are in.
All that to say, thanks to the board for the ongoing education and advice. I’m trying to put the benefits to good use.